I started playing around with Tableau yesterday. I created a test visualization that shows, at a glance the number of token there are, after burns, for any combination. This software should allow for more robust and faster analysis than the current spreadsheet. Please have a look and let me know if you have any ideas for visualizations.
The Tableau Link is HERE
There's been a lot of discussion in the VeeFriends Discord about accumulating five or more of the same type of frame. There is speculation this will be a requirement to burn for either a VeeCon ticket or a new VeeFriends 2 character. I think the burn requirements for a new character will be higher but that's just my opinion. I thought I'd post a list of the number of wallets that hold 5 or more of each frame as of the morning of February 27th in the US. It looks like Neon, Emerald and Pearl have the least number while still being somewhat attainable.
Yesterday was an exciting day in the Book Games world. Gary posted that having five of the same frames mattered. Immediately people started trying to build collections of the same five frames. Total sales yesterday (day is measured by GMT) were 464. That's about triple the volume we've been having lately.
It's not clear if Gary's message is talking about an upcoming Token Exchange sale on VeeCon tickets or burning requirements to mint VeeFriends 2 new characters. Hopefully we'll find out soon.
It's been a few days since I posted my best value list. The prices are noticeably on the rise. I'll also note that these prices are for the Immutable X Marketplace which remains slightly cheaper than TokenTrove.
I've pulled the top 25 tokens in terms of Rarity Price Ratio and then sorted those 25 based upon price. It looks like Granite has become a bit underpriced. It's not super rare but slightly more rare than most tokens on the floor and selling just slightly above the floor. If you want to pick up 5 Granite tokens relatively cheaply, now is the time to move. The two Galaxy frames with less than 100 supply look nice for someone working on one of those collections. Champagne has begun to bubble up the list as the general floor has moved higher. Might be time to start buying those for some of you players with bigger bankrolls. Good luck!
There has been a lot of discussion in the VeeFriends Discord about how to get on the whitelist for minting a VeeFriends 2 NFT. There will be a raffle among Book Games Token holders to determine who gets on the whitelist. The probabilities for that raffle have not yet been announced. In the table below I've laid out various scenarios and the associated probability of winning at least 1 whitelist spot based upon how many tokens you hold. I highlighted the number of tokens needed for a 90% chance of getting at least 1 whitelist spot for each of the probabilities. For example, if there is a 10% chance for each token during the raffle, you would need to hold 22 tokens to give yourself a 90% chance of getting at least 1 whitelist spot.
Just a quick post to say that you can quickly see what transactions are happening in the Book Games universe by checking out Immutascan.
This link will show you, at a glance, all the transactions taking place. So the next time you see the floor being swept you can check out who is doing the sweeping.
https://immutascan.io/address/0xac98d8d1bb27a94e79fbf49198210240688bb1ed
Yesterday someone claimed their Book Game tokens. They got 24 tokens and one of them was a Time Machine Tiny Ogre. There is now one Ogre left to be claimed. It's a Gold/Wood combination. Will it be claimed or will 2022 end before that happens?
Someone asked in the VeeFriends Discord why the Patience/Bubble Gum/Fur floor was 0.93ETH. There are 125 remaining tokens with those traits so it's not particularly rare -- and yet it's selling for more than three times the current floor. When there's a disconnect between rarity and price it usually means Gary has hinted something about it. Of course, he did.
Let's see what that did to the price. This is a list of all transactions for this combination. I added a line where the hint happened.
Today I noticed a discrepancy in price between TokenTrove and the Immutable Marketplace. It's not a huge difference but it's enough where all of the data I pull will be slightly off. So I'm going to hold off in updating my data until they fix the issue. Someone said that a new fee has been added to TokenTrove and not on Immutable. So do with that information what you wish...
While running through some analysis today I noticed a few transactions that seemed strange. The tokens sold for a lot more than they should have.
So be aware that there are a few anomalies in my data set presently. I'm going to work on a fix today and will hopefully publish a revised data set later today. The number of transactions and tokens impacted by this is really small -- less than 10 so it's not a big deal but I want to make sure it's correct going forward.
Rather than maintain a list of currency conversion data by date I'm planning to convert all the IMX data to ETH for consistency's sake using whatever the rate is at the time I pull the data. I'll let you know if I change my methodology in the future. I'm not anticipating a huge influx of IMX trades, but you never know.
This is the list of transactions from above with the currency conversion.
The table below is a list of the top 30 Rarity Price Ratio tokens for sale on the Book Games market right now. I sorted the list on Price. Notice that I've added two new columns to the set of data today. We now can see the price the combination last sold for and when that transaction took place. I've also added those columns to the Book Games Spreadsheet.
Today I like Accountability/Diamond/Caviar just above the current floor. There's plenty of Pearl on the board now but check out Humility/Bubble Gum/Pearl. Whoever picked that combo up for 0.3165 got a great deal but it's still a bargain at 0.3797.
I extended the list today to show some Champagne frames. These are very rare and can be a bargain in the sub 1.5 range. Check those three out if you're building a collection of bubbly.
Happy Monday Book Games players! I grabbed the top 25 Rarity Price Ratio (RPR) tokens this morning and sorted on price. The results are below. There's nothing that jumps out but if you're buying near the floor you might as well buy something slightly more rare. If you're building out a Galaxy collection the Optimism/Diamond/Galaxy with 109 tokens and a 0.26375 price looks good. If you're focused on Pearl then you might want to pick up the Curiosity/Lava/Pearl for 0.3587. That currently has the lowest RPR on the market. Take a look at the list and good luck!
I get a lot of questions about wallet sizes. I've added a new spreadsheet that has a list of Book Games Tokens wallet sizes and the number of each wallet with that quantity of tokens. The third column has the number of wallets with at least that many tokens. So, for example, there are 5,060 wallets with 5 or more tokens. Since this data doesn't change very often, I plan to update it about once a week unless something major happens.
I had to go a little deeper today to find some values. Below are the top 31 Rarity Price Ratio tokens then sorted on price. To get anything with less than a 100 token supply you've got to spend 0.3165. That will get you a Kind Candor/Diamond/Caviar. If you're working on a Caviar collection, it might not be a bad move. As usual there's a lot of Pearl on the board as it's normally undervalued for its rarity. If you're seeking Neon, there's a Kindness/Lava/Neon with only a 33 token supply selling for 0.5803 but even that's getting a little pricey.
In other news, there was a new whale spotted in the Book Games waters yesterday. They pretty much stuck to sweeping the ocean floor but managed to pick up 77 tokens in just a few hours.
We still haven't gotten the floor over 0.25 but we've gotten close. And the TokenTrove bug that is supposed to sort the lowest priced tokens appears to have gotten worse. I can now only see the 8 lowest priced on the floor. Hopefully they fix that soon.
You'll notice that the Time Machine Tiny Ogre is missing from my best values this morning. It looks like someone bought it about 13 hours ago for 42.2ETH!!! Incredible. And your welcome to whomever obviously read my great insight and made the smart best value purchase.
The list below is the top 23 tokens for sale with the best Rarity Price Ratio. Then I sort them based upon price. Looks like there's a decent sale going on for Lava/Rainbow tokens. The Ambition/Lava/Rainbow looks good with only 96 remaining and a price of 0.284745 -- not too much higher than the current Book Games floor.
Leave me a comment if you decide to pick up any of these gems.
I've been hard at work crunching numbers for the players of Book Games. Today I want to share a bit of analysis about Whale Wallets. I picked 50 Book Games Tokens as the cutoff to be considered a whale. Let me know if you think that's fair or not.
How many wallets have 50 or more tokens? 195
Whale Wallets that have at least one token listed for sale? 95
Whale Wallets that have zero tokens listed for sale? 100
Whale Wallets that have all their tokens listed for sale? 4
Total number of tokens held by Whale Wallets? 25,504
Number of tokens held by Whale Wallets listed for sale? 1,796
Number of tokens held by the largest Whale Wallet? 1,867
I crunched the numbers this morning to see what the best values are. Yesterday I released my best value picks in the VeeFriends Discord. I plan to release these here on the blog from now on.
Today I took the top 20 tokens with best Rarity Price Ratio and then sorted them on price. It looks like Curiosity/Lava/Rainbow is a great value right now very close to the floor. If you want to pay a bit more for rarity then it looks like Optimism/Hologram/Caviar is the play. Either way, there is plenty of value on this list. And ultra-rare Time Machine Tiny Ogre always tops the list as best value because of the extremely high rarity score. Anyone have 42ETH to spend? Act fast, I don't think many of these deals will last very long -- well, except for the Ogre.
I'm going to start offering a service for Book Games players. Send me one of your token IDs and I'll send you a spreadsheet with all of your token information including burn information and floor prices for the token combinations.
I can't do this for everyone since it takes me time to run but I'm willing to do it for a small fee. I'm not sure what to charge so make me an offer.
If you're interested, send me an email at BookGamesValuation@gmail.com.
Book Games has been very quiet lately. That's usually the time when Gary comes in and stirs the pot. Just a couple of notes from me this morning:
Have fun out there playing Book Games!
I just ran the data and computed Rarity Price Ratio across all of Book Games. The answer is overwhelmingly: PEARL. This is excluding specials. The best deal under 0.3 ETH appears to be Kind Candor / Lava / Caviar. Only 119 of those remain.
I posted about Book Games wallet sizes on January 27th. Since then there have been some changes.
Last night was exciting in the Book Games world. Gary entered the VeeFriends Discord and shared the following message
1. Gary can shock the market with something like this at any second. You cannot predict it. The people who had tokens listed under .3 got swept instantaneously. I would not list tokens in this type of environment. The people who got swept could have sold for a lot more than they did.
2. The posts were somewhat vague. We still don't know exactly what he means. We still don't have the burn requirements for VeeFriends 2 new characters.
3. Rarity still matters. 651 Patience Lava Wood tokens were minted. There are 70 of these tokens still not in circulation (they either haven't been claimed or Gary is holding them). Only 23 of these have been burned so far. This is the fifth most common token in the entire game. Be careful when placing a premium on something so common.
Yesterday I wrote about Attribute Rarity. I also introduced a new metric called Rarity Price Ratio (RPR).
I'm going to finish this series with an analysis of Spectacular Rarity. This is the trait there are the fewest of and thus has the least impact on rarity score. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant.
Here we have a table showing a count of remaining tokens by Spectacular. The table is sorted by Rarity Score which I discussed earlier.
Based upon this table, it appears that the least rare Spectaculars are selling at a premium. I think, in this case, that this particular analysis is not accurate since the Spectacular portion of a given token's Rarity Score is so small. Since the total floor seems to be the most active place for trades, the common tokens will appear to be trading at a premium -- at least for now. But the fact that Lava is so common might just play a role in the game as time moves on. 12,000 Lava tokens would need to be burned before they would match Bubble Gum's rarity.
What are your thoughts on Spectacular rarity scores? Leave a common with the analysis you'd like to see next.
Yesterday I wrote about Frame Rarity. I'm going to continue my analysis today by discussing Attribute Rarity. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant.
Here we have a table showing a count of remaining tokens by Attribute. The table is sorted by Rarity Score which I discussed earlier.
The table here doesn't show any real surprises. The focus right now seems to be the floor price for common tokens. The one thing I will point out is that there is a huge difference in supply of Empathy and Tenacity -- almost 10,000 tokens. Yet the difference in price is only 0.01477. Therefore it looks like there is a large discount on Tenacity currently.
The other thing I'd like to point out is the difference in price between Koalas and Ponies. They have the same supply and yet Ponies are selling at a premium. I think this shows that people are expecting greater future utility for Ponies relative to Koalas.
One of my readers suggested that I add an additional metric to my spreadsheet -- something that measures price along with rarity. I'll call it Rarity Price Ratio or RPR. I take the price of a token and divide it by the rarity score. This usually yields a small decimal so I multiply by 100 to get some value near 1 or 2.
Looking at the RPR metric yields some insights. We see that my previous observation about Tenacity holds true. It appears to be the Attribute trading at the steepest discount. It also shows that Empathy appears to be trading at a premium.
The specials are very interesting from an RPR perspective as well. The Pony and Koala appear to be trading at a premium while the Ogre appears to be trading at a discount. How many people out there have 55ETH to gamble on an Ogre? I don't but I'd be happy for someone to transfer one to my wallet.
As always, stay safe out there and enjoy playing Book Games!
Yesterday I wrote about token rarity scores. I also added rarity to scores to my Book Games Spreadsheet.
Today I'm going to examine the current price floors for the various Frames. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant. In future days I'll do a similar analysis by Spectacular and Attribute.
Here we have a table showing a count of remaining frames as of a couple of days ago along with Frame Rarity Score and Floor Price. The table is sorted by Rarity Score.
The first six Frames all have nearly identical prices. There is no premium for Marble compared to Wood even though there are 6,285 fewer tokens with this attribute.
We finally see a bit of a premium placed on Granite which is on half the tokens as Wood.
Then there is a rather substantial jump to Fur even though the rarity of Granite and Fur is relatively similar.
Caviar, despite being on 1,639 fewer tokens than Fur, is trading at a lower floor than Fur.
If rarity was controlling price we should expect a smooth rise up to Champagne but Emerald stands out as an anomaly and appears to be trading at a premium.
Let me try to explain how I read all this.
1. Emerald has been called out several times by Gary. "Green is green" is what he says. It also happens to be his favorite football team's color. I think these two things explain the premium. People are expecting greater utility from Emerald down the road.
2. Gary has said "Fur is fire" several times which might explain the premium placed on Fur tokens. There are also several items on the Token Exchange which require large amounts of fur. One of the items requires about 10% of the total Fur supply. This does not explain why Caviar is trading at a discount. If you have a theory on Caviar, please leave a comment.
3. Why are the six least rare frames all trading at nearly identical price floors? I think this is happening because people rightly see Book Games Tokens as a raffle ticket to minting VeeFriends Season 2 tokens. They're just trying to buy the lowest-priced tokens to enter the game. So if you're a seller of a relatively common token, you have to match that floor if you want your token to move.
Right now the floor dynamics are being dictated by the upcoming raffle to mint VeeFriends Season 2. The minute more information becomes available about which tokens are necessary to burn in order to get one of the new VeeFriends characters then the market will shift swiftly. Get ready!
I have updated the Book Games Spreadsheet data and added a few new fields. I'll discuss each one.
Combination Count - This is the total number of tokens that were originally minted for a given combination of traits. For example, Marble / Lava / Empathy had 397 tokens originally minted.
Combination Count After Burn - This is the total number of tokens that were minted less any tokens that were burned. Continuing with the above example, seven Marble / Lava / Empathy tokens have been burned so there is a total supply of 390. I want to point out that this is not the number currently in circulation because 55 of these are currently not issued. Also, this number can actually increase at a later time. Tokens that are temporarily burned may have an issue with their transaction and may be unburned. Only permanently burned tokens are really gone forever. It is fair to say that the majority of temporarily burned tokens will eventually be permanently burned.
Rarity Score - This is a rarity score that is commonly used in the world of NFTs. The calculation of rarity for a given trait is the number of items in that collection divided by the number of items with that trait.
Let's use our Marble / Lava / Empathy example to explain how this works. After burning, there are a total of 122,735 tokens. There are a total of 10,270 remaining Marble frames, 40,621 remaining Lava spectaculars, and 16,206 remaining Empathy attributes.
To compute the total rarity score I take the rarity of each trait for a given token and add the three numbers.
This number isn't perfect but does give a sense of the magnitude of rarity for a given token. I think this score taken along with Combination Count After Burn gives a good sense of how rare a token is. I'm going to be investigating other ways of scoring and ranking rarities in the coming weeks.
I was going to write a post about Book Game token rarities today but had some issues pulling data last night. You can expect a post on that tomorrow.
I wanted to share a little bit about myself and my history with Gary. I'm into wine and was a customer of the Wine Library back in 2006 when he started his Wine Library TV show. So I've met Gary on a number of occasions.
One day back in 2009 I stopped in to say hello and he says, "go grab two bottles, you're on the show today". And so I did and I was. Had a great time filming this episode. In the episode we talk about our trip to Napa together which was back in 2007. Watching this is a lot of fun for me, brings back some good memories.
I wrote on Monday explaining why the Book Games floor price had been dropping at the time. A single player had been airdropped 482 tokens and was selling them below the previous floor price. By the time I finished pulling data on Monday the player had sold about 150 tokens. As of last night the player is down to only 45 tokens -- most of which are for sale. Curiously they have unlisted five Empathy tokens. The floor price today is back up to about .2 and appears to be relatively stable. If a token comes onto the market below .2 it is quickly sniped.
I was notified of another rather large airdrop of tokens on Sunday. The player was airdopped 499 tokens. Not a single token has been listed for sale as of this morning. Subsequently the player was transferred another 20 tokens yesterday. The player also happens to have 5 Koalas and 5 Paper Hands Ponies in the wallet. Very interesting. The strangest part of their initial airdrop is that the Token IDs are non-contiguous which is unusual and they are almost all very high ID numbers, above 120,000. Could it be Gary getting a wallet ready for his giveaway? What are your guesses?
I'll close by warning that not all tokens have been airdropped to players. Some are waiting to claim theirs for whatever reason. There appears to be roughly 8,000 left to be airdropped not counting Gary's stash. There likely will be more market shocks to come. Be safe out there and enjoy Book Games!
I compiled a list of the top 10 crazy Book Games Theories I've seen in the VeeFriends Discord. Keep in mind that these are all just crazy theories. None of this has been confirmed. Do not make trades based upon any of this. Do not make trades based upon any of this.Do not make trades based upon any of this.
Seriously, do not make trades based upon any of this.
1. Paper Hands Pony will get a player entry into a virtual pony race. Player will have to burn their token but could get a huge prize if their pony wins.
2. Koala 2025 will be like the VeeFriends Keynote Koala but for the year 2025. Player will get a premium seat at any of the keynotes Gary presents in 2025 along with green room access.
3. Tiny Time Machine Ogre will allow a player to virtually travel back in time to May of 2021 to mint an original VeeFriends.
4. The black space on each Book Games token is reserved for a frame mat with different rarities that will be added at a later date.
5. All of the Tiny Time Machine Ogres are unique except for Caviar/Hologram. It will be extra special in some way and might be a clue about the Caviar/Hologram combination.
6. Hologram spectaculars will be wild cards for access purposes and won't require burning.
7. A player will have to burn a Paper Hands Pony in order to mint one of the 15 new VeeFriends 2 characters.
8. There are 15 Frame types and 15 new Vee Friends characters for season 2. Each frame type corresponds to a VF2 Character and you'll have to burn that frame type in order to mint one.
9. Koala 2025 hints that VeeCon 2025 will be held in Australia and the holder will get a ticket to the conference.
10. Paper Hands Pony has a hidden feature where the prize for burning it will grow over time.
What are your best Book Games theories?
