Final Stretch

Only 4 days remain until the Book Games wallet snapshot will be taken. In case you're not aware, at 1PM Eastern time on April 5th, a snapshot will be taken of all tokens and wallets in Book Games. A raffle will be held among those tokens with 32,000 being randomly selected for a VeeFriends 2 Pre-Public Mint spot.

As we get closer, I anticipate both transactions and the average transaction price to increase. We had 699 transactions on March 31st which is about double what we've being seeing over the last week.

I also anticipate the floor for rarer frames to rise. As you can see below there are only 15 Neon, 67 Pearl and 79 Emerald frames listed below 1 ETH. That barrier could easily be breached once burn requirements are finalized and announced.

What is your guess for the Book Games floor on April 5th at 1PM Eastern? I expect players to begin delisting tokens as we get closer to the snapshot. That along with increased demand could cause a squeeze in the next few days. I think we'll go above 0.5 ETH. 

Emerald Flips Pearl

Yesterday in the VeeFriends Discord, Gary gave out a clue. Many players interpreted this as meaning these were these are the only frames that will be eligible to burn for a new VeeFriends 2 character. 

This made the players who had built up sets of five frames that were not on this list upset. I personally don't believe this is an exhaustive list of what will be burnable but really only Gary knows that.

This had an immediate impact on the market for Book Games tokens. Notably missing from the list were Pearl and Neon -- two rare frames. Now the current floor for Pearl is about 0.64ETH while the floor for Emerald is about 0.73ETH.

I think this is an opportunity to buy Pearl which has about 25% less supply than Emerald. What do you think?

Frame Supply and Demand

There is currently an enormous focus on gathering sets of 5 matching frames in the Book Games waters. I update the stats on how many wallets have done so HERE. The number of wallets holding matching sets has gone up significantly in the past week. I expect it to grow significantly more over the next month -- even after the Friends List raffle on April 5th. This is going to put significant pressure on the price of certain frames. This is especially true for Neon, Pearl, and Emerald. There just aren't enough Neon frames for sale right now to make more than 50 new matching sets. These floors have continued to rise even as the total Book Games floor has fallen a bit in the last few days.

This table shows the total number of tokens for sale by frame along with the current total supply of each frame.

Count of Wallets with Frame Sets

In my quest to get all of the Book Games Data into Tableau, I added the Count of Wallets with Frame Sets.

You can find it by clicking HERE.

Yesterday was a crazy day in the Book Games world with 1,379 tokens sold and floors rising rapidly. I'll be digesting all of what happened and will try to bring you insights through the data. If you have any specific questions about the data, leave a comment.

VeeFriends New Character Carnage

I was hard at work crunching numbers again this morning. I wanted to speculate on how many tokens could possibly be burned for VeeFriends 2 new characters. What if everyone who had a set of 5 matching frames was able to burn for a new character and they decided to do so? What if every wallet that had multiple sets of 5 was able to burn? For example, there's a wallet with 50 Rainbow frames -- what if they burned all of those for 10 new characters? For purposes of this exercise, I stopped counting at 10 new characters.

As you can see in the table below, it works out to a whopping 27,140 tokens burned! This is over 22% of the current token supply.

To be honest, I don't think it will be possible to burn this many tokens but to put things into perspective, there are only about 11,000 tokens currently available for sale. Even if 5,000 are actually burned it's going to significantly alter the overall supply of tokens.

Frame Sets

Players continue to gather matching frames. Here's a total of the number of wallets with at least # of frames. I wanted to start with 4 to show that many players are very close to getting 5 matching frames. I also wanted to show 10 because those players could potentially get 2 new VeeFriends 2 characters (although this hasn't been confirmed).

Gary confirmed that 5 matching frames will be required for a new character. But you'll need to move fast!

Wallets With 5 Or More Like Frames

There's been a lot of discussion in the VeeFriends Discord about accumulating five or more of the same type of frame. There is speculation this will be a requirement to burn for either a VeeCon ticket or a new VeeFriends 2 character. I think the burn requirements for a new character will be higher but that's just my opinion. I thought I'd post a list of the number of wallets that hold 5 or more of each frame as of the morning of February 27th in the US. It looks like Neon, Emerald and Pearl have the least number while still being somewhat attainable.

Frame Rarity

Yesterday I wrote about token rarity scores. I also added rarity to scores to my Book Games Spreadsheet. 

Today I'm going to examine the current price floors for the various Frames. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant. In future days I'll do a similar analysis by Spectacular and Attribute.

Here we have a table showing a count of remaining frames as of a couple of days ago along with Frame Rarity Score and Floor Price. The table is sorted by Rarity Score.

The first six Frames all have nearly identical prices. There is no premium for Marble compared to Wood even though there are 6,285 fewer tokens with this attribute.

We finally see a bit of a premium placed on Granite which is on half the tokens as Wood.

Then there is a rather substantial jump to Fur even though the rarity of Granite and Fur is relatively similar.

Caviar, despite being on 1,639 fewer tokens than Fur, is trading at a lower floor than Fur.

If rarity was controlling price we should expect a smooth rise up to Champagne but Emerald stands out as an anomaly and appears to be trading at a premium.

Let me try to explain how I read all this.

1. Emerald has been called out several times by Gary. "Green is green" is what he says. It also happens to be his favorite football team's color. I think these two things explain the premium. People are expecting greater utility from Emerald down the road.

2. Gary has said "Fur is fire" several times which might explain the premium placed on Fur tokens. There are also several items on the Token Exchange which require large amounts of fur. One of the items requires about 10% of the total Fur supply. This does not explain why Caviar is trading at a discount. If you have a theory on Caviar, please leave a comment.

3. Why are the six least rare frames all trading at nearly identical price floors? I think this is happening because people rightly see Book Games Tokens as a raffle ticket to minting VeeFriends Season 2 tokens. They're just trying to buy the lowest-priced tokens to enter the game. So if you're a seller of a relatively common token, you have to match that floor if you want your token to move.

Right now the floor dynamics are being dictated by the upcoming raffle to mint VeeFriends Season 2. The minute more information becomes available about which tokens are necessary to burn in order to get one of the new VeeFriends characters then the market will shift swiftly. Get ready!