Patience/Bubble Gum/Fur

Someone asked in the VeeFriends Discord why the Patience/Bubble Gum/Fur floor was 0.93ETH. There are 125 remaining tokens with those traits so it's not particularly rare -- and yet it's selling for more than three times the current floor. When there's a disconnect between rarity and price it usually means Gary has hinted something about it. Of course, he did.

Let's see what that did to the price. This is a list of all transactions for this combination. I added a line where the hint happened.

As you can see the price jumped. But look closer to see how many players left a lot of ETH on the table by selling too low. There are at least four sales (bolded) that were far too low, maybe more. This is simply a lack of research when selling. Check the floors and rarity before selling. If you see something that doesn't make sense, dive in a little deeper and check to see if Gary hinted. The fine folks in the VeeFriends Discord are there to answer questions like these. There are bots out there that are taking advantage of these mispriced tokens -- don't let them win!

Spectacular Rarity

Yesterday I wrote about Attribute Rarity. I also introduced a new metric called Rarity Price Ratio (RPR). 

I'm going to finish this series with an analysis of Spectacular Rarity. This is the trait there are the fewest of and thus has the least impact on rarity score. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant.

Here we have a table showing a count of remaining tokens by Spectacular. The table is sorted by Rarity Score which I discussed earlier.

Based upon this table, it appears that the least rare Spectaculars are selling at a premium. I think, in this case, that this particular analysis is not accurate since the Spectacular portion of a given token's Rarity Score is so small. Since the total floor seems to be the most active place for trades, the common tokens will appear to be trading at a premium -- at least for now. But the fact that Lava is so common might just play a role in the game as time moves on. 12,000 Lava tokens would need to be burned before they would match Bubble Gum's rarity.

What are your thoughts on Spectacular rarity scores? Leave a common with the analysis you'd like to see next.

Attribute Rarity

Yesterday I wrote about Frame Rarity. I'm going to continue my analysis today by discussing Attribute Rarity. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant.

Here we have a table showing a count of remaining tokens by Attribute. The table is sorted by Rarity Score which I discussed earlier.

The table here doesn't show any real surprises. The focus right now seems to be the floor price for common tokens. The one thing I will point out is that there is a huge difference in supply of Empathy and Tenacity -- almost 10,000 tokens. Yet the difference in price is only 0.01477. Therefore it looks like there is a large discount on Tenacity currently.

The other thing I'd like to point out is the difference in price between Koalas and Ponies. They have the same supply and yet Ponies are selling at a premium. I think this shows that people are expecting greater future utility for Ponies relative to Koalas.

One of my readers suggested that I add an additional metric to my spreadsheet -- something that measures price along with rarity. I'll call it Rarity Price Ratio or RPR. I take the price of a token and divide it by the rarity score. This usually yields a small decimal so I multiply by 100 to get some value near 1 or 2.

Looking at the RPR metric yields some insights. We see that my previous observation about Tenacity holds true. It appears to be the Attribute trading at the steepest discount. It also shows that Empathy appears to be trading at a premium.

The specials are very interesting from an RPR perspective as well. The Pony and Koala appear to be trading at a premium while the Ogre appears to be trading at a discount. How many people out there have 55ETH to gamble on an Ogre? I don't but I'd be happy for someone to transfer one to my wallet.

As always, stay safe out there and enjoy playing Book Games!

Frame Rarity

Yesterday I wrote about token rarity scores. I also added rarity to scores to my Book Games Spreadsheet. 

Today I'm going to examine the current price floors for the various Frames. This analysis assumes that the other two traits at the floors are relatively constant. In future days I'll do a similar analysis by Spectacular and Attribute.

Here we have a table showing a count of remaining frames as of a couple of days ago along with Frame Rarity Score and Floor Price. The table is sorted by Rarity Score.

The first six Frames all have nearly identical prices. There is no premium for Marble compared to Wood even though there are 6,285 fewer tokens with this attribute.

We finally see a bit of a premium placed on Granite which is on half the tokens as Wood.

Then there is a rather substantial jump to Fur even though the rarity of Granite and Fur is relatively similar.

Caviar, despite being on 1,639 fewer tokens than Fur, is trading at a lower floor than Fur.

If rarity was controlling price we should expect a smooth rise up to Champagne but Emerald stands out as an anomaly and appears to be trading at a premium.

Let me try to explain how I read all this.

1. Emerald has been called out several times by Gary. "Green is green" is what he says. It also happens to be his favorite football team's color. I think these two things explain the premium. People are expecting greater utility from Emerald down the road.

2. Gary has said "Fur is fire" several times which might explain the premium placed on Fur tokens. There are also several items on the Token Exchange which require large amounts of fur. One of the items requires about 10% of the total Fur supply. This does not explain why Caviar is trading at a discount. If you have a theory on Caviar, please leave a comment.

3. Why are the six least rare frames all trading at nearly identical price floors? I think this is happening because people rightly see Book Games Tokens as a raffle ticket to minting VeeFriends Season 2 tokens. They're just trying to buy the lowest-priced tokens to enter the game. So if you're a seller of a relatively common token, you have to match that floor if you want your token to move.

Right now the floor dynamics are being dictated by the upcoming raffle to mint VeeFriends Season 2. The minute more information becomes available about which tokens are necessary to burn in order to get one of the new VeeFriends characters then the market will shift swiftly. Get ready!

Token Rarity

 

I have updated the Book Games Spreadsheet data and added a few new fields. I'll discuss each one.

Combination Count - This is the total number of tokens that were originally minted for a given combination of traits. For example, Marble / Lava / Empathy had 397 tokens originally minted.

Combination Count After Burn - This is the total number of tokens that were minted less any tokens that were burned. Continuing with the above example, seven Marble / Lava / Empathy tokens have been burned so there is a total supply of 390. I want to point out that this is not the number currently in circulation because 55 of these are currently not issued. Also, this number can actually increase at a later time. Tokens that are temporarily burned may have an issue with their transaction and may be unburned. Only permanently burned tokens are really gone forever. It is fair to say that the majority of temporarily burned tokens will eventually be permanently burned.

Rarity Score - This is a rarity score that is commonly used in the world of NFTs. The calculation of rarity for a given trait is the number of items in that collection divided by the number of items with that trait.

Let's use our Marble / Lava / Empathy example to explain how this works. After burning, there are a total of 122,735 tokens.  There are a total of 10,270 remaining Marble frames, 40,621 remaining Lava spectaculars, and 16,206 remaining Empathy attributes.

To compute the total rarity score I take the rarity of each trait for a given token and add the three numbers. 

This number isn't perfect but does give a sense of the magnitude of rarity for a given token. I think this score taken along with Combination Count After Burn gives a good sense of how rare a token is. I'm going to be investigating other ways of scoring and ranking rarities in the coming weeks.

Time Machine Tiny Ogre Uniqueness

Out of the 125,000 Book Game Tokens there are 971 "Specials". These include all tokens with the Koala 2025, Paper Hands Pony, and Time Machine Tiny Ogre attributes.

478 - Koala 2025

478 - Paper Hands Pony

15 - Time Machine Tiny Ogre

Of the Time Machine Tiny Ogres, all combinations are unique except Hologram/Pearl for which there are two. Is that some sort of clue? They could have easily made that combination unique. Why didn't they? Is the Hologram/Pearl combination special for some aspect of the game? Let me know if you have a theory.

Links to the two Hologram/Pearl/Ogres

First Second

Floors By Rarity

For every given combination of attributes in Book Games there is some quantity of tokens. For example, there are 873 tokens with Empathy/Bubble Gum/Wood but only 1 token with Paper Hands Pony/Diamond/Emerald. You can see the full breakdown in this POST. I charted the Floor by Quantity of Rarity. So I pulled the current floor of all tokens that are 1 of 125,000. Current floor of all tokens that are 100 of 125,000. Etc, etc, etc.

The chart mostly makes sense. You really have to get down into the details to see where anamolies occur. For that reason I'm posting the set of data in the following spreadsheet. What are the biggest anomalies you see?

Note: Keep in mind that not all combinations will be listed here. Only the floor for "x of a kind".