VeeCon!!!

I'm heading to Minneapolis in a few minutes to attend the first-ever VeeCon. I'm excited to meet all of you there. The picture above is from the label of Gary's first community wine way back in 2007. I still have a couple bottles for sentimental purposes.

I also want to note that the Book Games visualization in Tableau has been changed/updated/consolidated. Please use THIS VIEW AT THIS LINK HERE from now on. I'm planning to make a video next week walking through how to use it effectively.

RIP Paper Hands Pony

 

There's been a bit of controversy in the VeeFriends Discord over whether or not it was possible to burn a Special Book Games token. We can put that controversy to rest now that Token #97713 was burned a couple of days ago. This token looks appropriate as the poor little pony is surrounded by lava and flames.

Please pay attention when burning so that you don't make a mistake like this. It was approximately 2ETH unnecessarily burned.

Friday Best Values

Before I start writing about today's best values, I want to give you an advanced warning that the Book Games visualization on my Tableau page will change sometime next week. I'm consolidating all Book Games data into a single visualization with multiple tabs. I will retire frame counts views at that point as well. Feedback on the new views is appreciated.

The raffle snapshots are now done and so now there is very little utility associated with Book Games Tokens. Some players will need to pick a few up in order to burn but there is very little demand at this point. It will be interesting to see how long Gary lets things go before introducing some new utility.

So now we can bargain hunt. Below are today's top 50 best values. A few Neon frames have risen to the top of the list. Those look like terrific values at about 0.3ETH, especially since Neons will likely be burned in the next two weeks. I'm a bit surprised that none of the rarer attributes are on the list. I think this shows just how undervalued frame rarity is at this point. Happy sniping!

Best Values

We continue to see a trend where tokens no longer needed for a raffle drop significantly in price. My best values list today is dominated by Caviar. I expect this trend to continue and will look for opportunities to acquire the rare Pearl and Neon tokens. We are now seeing Rarity/Price/Ratios below 0.4. Keep in mind that before the Friends List snapshot, all RPR were above 1.0.

Looking Back

As you all know, the prices for Book Games have plummeted since the Friends List Snapshot on April 5th. We can look at this as a disaster or as an opportunity. I firmly believe that at some point in the future, Book Games tokens will be highly sought after. At that time, there will be far fewer tokens available due to burn events So let's compare floor prices by frame just before the snapshot and today.

Champagne has fallen by over an ETH but has maintained its value better than any other frame. It makes sense since Champagne still has some very highly sought-after raffles coming up soon. I think it's very possible Champagne could drop significantly after those events creating a good opportunity.

The other thing that stands out to me is the number of tokens listed. The number available for sale now is significantly higher for all frames. We now have many more sellers than buyers. The number of wallets holding Book Games tokens has fallen by about 2,000 since the snapshot.

Book Games is really a supply and demand game when it comes down to it. Supply will slowly shrink over time. Demand will ebb and flow as tokens are needed for utility. The minute demand picks back up, I think we will return to at least Pre-FL snapshot floors and probably higher. Just imagine if those 2,000 players who left the game last month all rushed in at once. The floors would skyrocket.

Best Values

We're in the thick of VeeFriends 2 new character raffles now and some interesting things are happening. The  Clown raffle has ended and Rainbow frames have tanked. Some are now selling below 0.2ETH.

When I checked my "best values" this morning, the first 7 on the list were Rainbow frames. They are the fifth most rare frame currently and are a screaming value. They are currently selling at Rarity/Price/Ratios we have not seen before in the Book Games world. If you're looking for a long-term play, Rainbow is it right now.

If you've got a bit more to spend, there's a Conviction/Bubble Gum/Silver selling for about 0.5ETH and Conviction/Bubble Gum Black selling for 0.53ETH. They are 1 of 32 and 1 of 24 respectively.

Public VeeFriends 2 Mint

Gary threw us a curveball this week by changing the public mint to a Discord raffle. You needed to be a VF Discord member by Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT in order to enter the raffle. You can read all about the raffle HERE AT THIS LINK. 

You need to have 0.335ETH in your wallet in order to enter the raffle. You need to enter the raffle no later than Midnight on Sunday night April 24th Eastern time (New York City).

Important Dates:

Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT - Cutoff to be a Discord member in order to be eligible.

Monday, April 25 at 12:00 AM EDT - Cutoff to enter the raffle.

Monday, April 25 at 12:30 AM EDT - Raffle winners announced.

Monday, April 25th at 1:00 PM EDT - Raffle winners can mint 1 VF2.

Tuesday, April 26th at 1:00 PM EDT - Cutoff for Raffle winners to mint their VF2.

If you don't win a spot in the raffle, they will waitlist you. If there are unclaimed spots in the public mint, they will go to the waitlist.

How many will enter? There are over 300,000 members in VF Discord but I expect the number to be far lower than that. Probably less than 100,000.

How many Friendslist mints have already been claimed? As of about 10AM Eastern time on Saturday, the numbers were as follows:

VF1 Count: 5,695

FL Count: 23,925

That means about 8,000 Friendslist spots have not yet been claimed. I update these numbers in VF Discord for time to time and will be monitoring closely over the next day. All of the unused spots will roll over to the public mint. These will be added to the 10,000 reserved for the public mint.

Good luck to everyone!

Friends List Mint

It feels like forever since I wrote an update here while in reality it's only been a week. I took a bit of a break while the VF2 Minting process was also taking a break. It seems like everything is back up and running with that now. As of this morning, about 22k VF2 tokens have been minted and the floor has remained just a tad under 1ETH for the past couple of days. I think the floor remaining steady here is a bullish sign for the project. With the way the minting process started out, things could be much worse.

In other news, Gary has hinted heavily in the VeeFriends Discord and on Twitter that he'll use a raffle for the remaining 10k+ minting spots rather than let them go to the public (and most likely the bots). How that raffle will be held remains to be seen. The Book Games floor is still rather low -- under 0.2ETH so it's a possible opportunity. If there was a raffle for Book Games holders, the probability for any given token would probably be very low -- around 10%. I wouldn't buy Book Games just for that possible opportunity. It might not happen, and if it does that's a very low probability to bet on.

Meanwhile, the Burn Raffle probabilities continue to drop. You can check them all out HERE AT THIS LINK. Emerald is no longer a sure thing at about 95%. The Red Devil is just under a 50/50 chance. I'm sure these odds will only worsen as money flows back into Book Games from VF2 sales. Keep in mind that these probabilities are worst-case -- only if all eligible sets are entered in the raffle. I don't think that will happen. The first raffle on April 27th should give us good insight into the Burn Raffle participation rate.

Finally, I've been working hard to get a VeeFriends 2 dataset loaded into Tableau. I hope to have that all ready to go for the day of the metadata reveal next week.

Have fun out there with the VF2 mint, stay safe, and keep in touch.

Friends List Mint

The big day is almost here -- those of us lucky enough to win Friends List spots in the raffle last week will be able to mint our VeeFriends 2 tokens starting tomorrow. I know some will rush to do it right away but remember that you have 12.5 days to mint so there is no hurry. I'm afraid many buyers will try to be first and gas could still be rather high.

In order to minimize gas, be sure to check with a Gas Tracker before minting. LINK HERE for the Rarible Analytics tracker.

I have no idea what the secondary price floor will be for VF2 during the pre-mint period but I see many guesses in the 1-3ETH range. Let me know what your guesses are.

Meanwhile, the Book Games floor continues to drop. At the time I'm posting this it's down to about 0.2ETH. I see this is a huge opportunity. The next time there is an event, we'll likely see prices soar once again. I'm particularly interested in Ponies and Koalas listed for under 4ETH right now. From what Gary has said, those should likely trade at about 1/2 the value of the VF1 floor implying a price of about 6 or 7ETH.

Tableau Updates

I've been working on a few Tableau Updates and wanted to make players aware of them. LINK TO THE WEBSITE HERE.

Updated Burn Raffle Entries

To see the current number of possible Burn Raffle Entries, go to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization in Tableau.

Then select the down arrow in the upper left. Then select the sheet you want. For example, Black Frame Sets. 

That will bring you to a visualization that shows how many possible entries can be made for Black Frame Sets currently. It also shows that as a percentage of the 214 tokens available.

Best Values

This is another tab within the Full Book Games Dataset. It shows a visualization of tokens available for sale at the time the data was pulled. It has # of tokens for that combination unburned on the horizontal axis and Rarity Price Ratio on the vertical axis. The idea here is that good values will be toward the bottom-left. I consider this to be an experimental visualization for now so feedback is appreciated. The data for this one will get stale quickly after I post it. This really drives home the need for more timely data on this Tableau site but that's really not on possible until/unless I get some proper funding. I promise to keep this site free so everyone has access to the data -- but there's the tradeoff with timeliness that comes with it, unfortunately.

Multiple Wallet Summary

There are several players with Book Games held in multiple wallets for one reason or another. So I've introduced a new Wallet Summary called Multiple Wallet Summary. You can enter up to 10 wallet addresses on the right to see a consolidated view of all your wallets together. Then you can sort accordingly.

I understand that it's not convenient to copy and paste your wallets into those fields so here's a tip for saving a bookmark.

Start with this URL:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bookgames/viz/WalletSummary/MultipleWalletSummary_1

Then add on as many wallets as you want:

?Enter%20Wallet%20Address=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%202=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%203=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%204=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%205=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%206=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%207=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%208=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%209=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%2010=0x...

Be careful to follow that format exactly with no extra spaces. The %20 in the parameter value acts as a space so that's necessary. You don't need to use all of them. So if you had three wallets you'd only use the first three parameters.

Once you have the URL set and tested, you can bookmark it for future time savings.

Friends List Raffle Postmortem

It's been an exciting few days in the VeeFriends world. The raffle took place yesterday. There were some winners and some losers. We knew some players would go 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 and they did. We knew some players with 10+ tokens would get no spots and they did.

Yesterday I predicted there would be a flash crash immediately after the snapshot and there was. This was predicted by most people in the space so I don't consider myself particularly smart with that call. It looks like the floor has settled in at about 0.26 or 0.27 for now. What does this mean? Is it the end of Book Games? Should you sell everything and walk away? Absolutely not.

Now we have a model of Book Games behavior for use in the future. There will be other times when Book Games will have utility. The focus for the next few weeks will be on the Patience/Lava sets and the matching Frame sets. So we can potentially use what we learned in those burn raffle scenarios. I'll be watching the first burn raffle extremely carefully. Based upon what we saw previously, I would expect a price increase for each type of token a few days preceding its respective burn raffle. Therefore I would try to get the necessary tokens for the raffles I want to enter now, not in those few days preceeding.

What if you cannot get the necessary tokens to enter the burn raffle? For example, you have one Rainbow frame but don't have the ETH to buy four more. I think one strategy you should consider would be to sell your single Rainbow frame leading up to the raffle. So maybe a day before or the day of, just as demand peaks. Sell when there are buyers with the incentive to buy. Buy when there are sellers with the incentive to sell.

Unfortunately, these burns raffles will not take place until after the Friends List mint. I would hang on to the extra ETH to buy back into Book Games when the dust clears in June.

The point I want to stress is that Book Games will have utility in the future. When that happens we can expect to see price increases at least in line with what we saw for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. But here's the kicker -- there will be less supply each time that happens. Those price spikes will likely be even more dramatic because there will be fewer tokens to go around. Keep that in mind as you make your decisions to hold or sell Book Games tokens.

Raffle Day

Well, friends, today is the day we've all been waiting for. Today the tokens we have been playing so hard to get will be entered into the drawing for Friends List spots for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Good luck to everyone who has been following. Hopefully, I've played a role in helping you play the game well.

Having said that, I expect there to be a dip in prices as players exit the game after 1PM Eastern time. There are currently about 7,500 Book Games Tokens listed for sale. That number has been slowly dropping for days. It is normally at least 1,000 higher than that.

An influx of even 500 tokens on the floor all at once could send prices crashing with players trying to be the first to exit. I see this as a major buying opportunity. See which tokens you need to make additional 5 framesets and use this time to fill gaps. I hope the floor doesn't crash, but I think it will. Best of luck today!

Burn Day 2 Analysis

We're less than 24 hours away from the Friends List raffle for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Is anyone excited? I am.

But that's only part of the Book Games chaos right now. Players are preparing for burn raffles for new VF2 characters that will take place after the mint. Here's my analysis on the Day 2 Burn Raffle for Notorious Ninja.

The Ninja will be a highly sought-after character just because it looks super bad-ass. The competition will be fierce and will require a set of 5 Black frames to enter the raffle. We're still a long way off from the raffle so I expect the competition to only get hotter as we get closer.

I've downloaded the Frame Sets data from Tableau (LINK HERE) to Excel and only left relevant data for this analysis.

 

There are currently 589 wallets with at least 5 Black frames. Many of those wallets have 10 or more frames allowing for more entries into the raffle. The total number of slots is about 815 (I stop counting after 50 frames so there might be a couple more).

There will be 214 winning entries in the raffle. Assuming all sets are entered into the raffle, you've got about a 26% chance of winning a spot. I think it's a fair assumption that not all sets will be entered but it's anybody's guess what those numbers will look like.

It will be interesting to see if players go after Black frames with so much competition. I included the wallets with 4 Black frames to show that 73 additional players could enter the raffle by purchasing only 1 additional Black frame. Black frames are selling just above the Book Games floor right now so many may choose to do so.

Pandemonium and the First Burn Day

Yesterday was an eventful day in the Book Games world. We learned about the burn requirements for new characters in the VeeFriends 2 series. You can read about them HERE AT THIS LINK.

I have already started updating Tableau data based upon some of the requirements. I plan to do at least a short write-up about each burn day. I'll start off with Day 1 which will require 5 Patience Lava tokens with any frame.

If you have 5 Patience Lava tokens in your wallet, you'll be able to enter a raffle on the VeeFriends website. 214 of those entries will be selected. If you have 10 of those tokens you can enter twice. I will assume 15 will allow you to enter 3 times but we'll need some clarification on this.

So how many wallets have at least 5 Patience Lava tokens? As of a few minutes ago the number was 135. I added a tab to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization HERE AT THIS LINK. It shows the wallets with 5 or more Patience Lava tokens.

If we assume every holder of 5 enters all of their tokens in the raffle (this means the player with 31 enters 6 times) then there can be a maximum of 199 entries right now. I'm sure this will change over the coming days but as of now it's a guaranteed win.

The floor for Patience Lava is about 0.7ETH right now so it will cost about 3.5ETH for the new Mindful Minokawa character. Are you planning to burn for it?

Final Stretch

Only 4 days remain until the Book Games wallet snapshot will be taken. In case you're not aware, at 1PM Eastern time on April 5th, a snapshot will be taken of all tokens and wallets in Book Games. A raffle will be held among those tokens with 32,000 being randomly selected for a VeeFriends 2 Pre-Public Mint spot.

As we get closer, I anticipate both transactions and the average transaction price to increase. We had 699 transactions on March 31st which is about double what we've being seeing over the last week.

I also anticipate the floor for rarer frames to rise. As you can see below there are only 15 Neon, 67 Pearl and 79 Emerald frames listed below 1 ETH. That barrier could easily be breached once burn requirements are finalized and announced.

What is your guess for the Book Games floor on April 5th at 1PM Eastern? I expect players to begin delisting tokens as we get closer to the snapshot. That along with increased demand could cause a squeeze in the next few days. I think we'll go above 0.5 ETH. 

Pearl Revisited

Yesterday in the VeeFriends Discord, Gary confirmed that both Neon and Pearl would be eligible to burn for VeeFriends 2 new characters.

People had gotten the mistaken notion that they weren't because he didn't mention them in a list of 7 frames he posted on March 17th.

This makes me believe even more firmly that one each of those seven frames will be burnable for a new character, but that's a different subject. Let's stick to Pearl, which I feel is dramatically undervalued right now. There are currently only 100 wallets with a 5 frame matching set of Pearl.

The current floor for Pearl is 0.7525 and has risen about .06 since he made the comment. But I think there is still an opportunity to buy. The table below shows that only 114 Pearl frames are listed below 1.5ETH. That's only about 23 matching sets of 5.

If burn rules for Pearl require 5 matching frames and allow for 220 sets to be burned, I think Pearl is in for a dramatic increase in price.

Best Values

It's been a long time since I posted a list of best values. The focus has been on floors for frames so somehow it felt irrelevant for a while. I wanted to show the list today as a measure of how much things have changed since the last time I posted it.

Below is the list of best values. Almost none have a Rarity-Price-Ratio below 1. Almost everything has a high degree of rarity now. Just for fun, go back and check out the value list I posted on March 1st -- LINK HERE.

In this video I walk through the Raffle Probability Visualization in Tableau. LINK HERE

Possible Strategy

For those who burned Book Games Tokens for a Gary Originally Owned VeeCon ticket, I was thinking of possible strategies to maximize the gain. It's possible that you could flip it, then buy back into Book Games for more chances to mint VeeFriends 2 NFTs.

The following scenario has a bunch of assumptions -- some of which may or may not turn out to be true. This is more of a thought experiment than anything.

• Suppose you burned 5 Wood Book Games Tokens. Price at the time was about 2ETH.

• Price for GOO VC ticket is about 4ETH now.

• Floor price of BGT is now about 0.4ETH.

• You could sell now and buy about 10BGT.

• You might get 2 extra FL spots with the 10BGT.

• You could sell 2 BGT to fund the VF2 mint.

Now this is where it gets tricky. What will the VF2 floor be? If it's 1 ETH your VF2 are worth 2ETH. If it's 2 ETH they're worth 4ETH.

That's if you do this right now. But what if you wait for the art reveal and GOO VC ticket goes to 5ETH or 6ETH? I put together a few scenarios in the below table. The expected value in the three columns on the right doesn't include the Book Games tokens that you could still hold. There are several things that could go wrong here -- the BG floor could moon before you're able to flip the VC ticket. The VF2 floor might not be what we expect. Lots of FUD but I think it's a valid strategy to at least consider. What are your thoughts on this move?

Large Transfer of Tokens

Update: Confirmed by VeeFriends that this transfer of tokens was done as a security measure.

About 9 or 10 hours ago it looks like all of the unassigned tokens were transferred from one wallet to another -- over 13,000 tokens. I'm assuming this was done for administrative purposes. But for now, some of the unassigned tokens might show up as assigned in Tableau. I'm waiting on confirmation.

Previous wallet was: 0xc0d6bca1c87d44aaf2801b31228803b8b70b37c1

New wallet is: 0xefbf105ca4bd45c3bdff25a7a4e2fe0a7ff2b8a8

Once I get confirmation, I'll update the airdrop link on this blog and will update the data in Tableau to reflect the change.