But that's only part of the Book Games chaos right now. Players are preparing for burn raffles for new VF2 characters that will take place after the mint. Here's my analysis on the Day 2 Burn Raffle for Notorious Ninja.
The Ninja will be a highly sought-after character just because it looks super bad-ass. The competition will be fierce and will require a set of 5 Black frames to enter the raffle. We're still a long way off from the raffle so I expect the competition to only get hotter as we get closer.
I've downloaded the Frame Sets data from Tableau (LINK HERE) to Excel and only left relevant data for this analysis.
There are currently 589 wallets with at least 5 Black frames. Many of those wallets have 10 or more frames allowing for more entries into the raffle. The total number of slots is about 815 (I stop counting after 50 frames so there might be a couple more).
There will be 214 winning entries in the raffle. Assuming all sets are entered into the raffle, you've got about a 26% chance of winning a spot. I think it's a fair assumption that not all sets will be entered but it's anybody's guess what those numbers will look like.
It will be interesting to see if players go after Black frames with so much competition. I included the wallets with 4 Black frames to show that 73 additional players could enter the raffle by purchasing only 1 additional Black frame. Black frames are selling just above the Book Games floor right now so many may choose to do so.
Hey Tim, first off I appreciate you putting this information together to share with the Veefriends community. It's been very helpful! One area that I wanted clarification on, shouldn't 589 be the total "qualifying sets"? Context: in the link you have "Note: Counts are inclusive of ALL wallets with AT LEAST that many frames. For example: wallets with Count of At Least 10 are also included in the wallets with Count of At Least 5.". Yet in the outline you have here, it is adding up all the wallets to 815 vs 589.
ReplyDeleteThere are 589 wallets with at least 5 matching black frames. Assume they all enter the raffle. Out of those 589 wallets, 98 players have 10 matching black frames. So they can enter a second time. Now you're up to 687 entries all from the same 589 wallets. Out of those 98 with at least 10, 47 of them have at least 15. So those 47 can enter a third time. Now we're up to 734 entries. Etc...
Delete