Public VeeFriends 2 Mint

Gary threw us a curveball this week by changing the public mint to a Discord raffle. You needed to be a VF Discord member by Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT in order to enter the raffle. You can read all about the raffle HERE AT THIS LINK. 

You need to have 0.335ETH in your wallet in order to enter the raffle. You need to enter the raffle no later than Midnight on Sunday night April 24th Eastern time (New York City).

Important Dates:

Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT - Cutoff to be a Discord member in order to be eligible.

Monday, April 25 at 12:00 AM EDT - Cutoff to enter the raffle.

Monday, April 25 at 12:30 AM EDT - Raffle winners announced.

Monday, April 25th at 1:00 PM EDT - Raffle winners can mint 1 VF2.

Tuesday, April 26th at 1:00 PM EDT - Cutoff for Raffle winners to mint their VF2.

If you don't win a spot in the raffle, they will waitlist you. If there are unclaimed spots in the public mint, they will go to the waitlist.

How many will enter? There are over 300,000 members in VF Discord but I expect the number to be far lower than that. Probably less than 100,000.

How many Friendslist mints have already been claimed? As of about 10AM Eastern time on Saturday, the numbers were as follows:

VF1 Count: 5,695

FL Count: 23,925

That means about 8,000 Friendslist spots have not yet been claimed. I update these numbers in VF Discord for time to time and will be monitoring closely over the next day. All of the unused spots will roll over to the public mint. These will be added to the 10,000 reserved for the public mint.

Good luck to everyone!

Friends List Mint

It feels like forever since I wrote an update here while in reality it's only been a week. I took a bit of a break while the VF2 Minting process was also taking a break. It seems like everything is back up and running with that now. As of this morning, about 22k VF2 tokens have been minted and the floor has remained just a tad under 1ETH for the past couple of days. I think the floor remaining steady here is a bullish sign for the project. With the way the minting process started out, things could be much worse.

In other news, Gary has hinted heavily in the VeeFriends Discord and on Twitter that he'll use a raffle for the remaining 10k+ minting spots rather than let them go to the public (and most likely the bots). How that raffle will be held remains to be seen. The Book Games floor is still rather low -- under 0.2ETH so it's a possible opportunity. If there was a raffle for Book Games holders, the probability for any given token would probably be very low -- around 10%. I wouldn't buy Book Games just for that possible opportunity. It might not happen, and if it does that's a very low probability to bet on.

Meanwhile, the Burn Raffle probabilities continue to drop. You can check them all out HERE AT THIS LINK. Emerald is no longer a sure thing at about 95%. The Red Devil is just under a 50/50 chance. I'm sure these odds will only worsen as money flows back into Book Games from VF2 sales. Keep in mind that these probabilities are worst-case -- only if all eligible sets are entered in the raffle. I don't think that will happen. The first raffle on April 27th should give us good insight into the Burn Raffle participation rate.

Finally, I've been working hard to get a VeeFriends 2 dataset loaded into Tableau. I hope to have that all ready to go for the day of the metadata reveal next week.

Have fun out there with the VF2 mint, stay safe, and keep in touch.

Friends List Raffle Postmortem

It's been an exciting few days in the VeeFriends world. The raffle took place yesterday. There were some winners and some losers. We knew some players would go 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 and they did. We knew some players with 10+ tokens would get no spots and they did.

Yesterday I predicted there would be a flash crash immediately after the snapshot and there was. This was predicted by most people in the space so I don't consider myself particularly smart with that call. It looks like the floor has settled in at about 0.26 or 0.27 for now. What does this mean? Is it the end of Book Games? Should you sell everything and walk away? Absolutely not.

Now we have a model of Book Games behavior for use in the future. There will be other times when Book Games will have utility. The focus for the next few weeks will be on the Patience/Lava sets and the matching Frame sets. So we can potentially use what we learned in those burn raffle scenarios. I'll be watching the first burn raffle extremely carefully. Based upon what we saw previously, I would expect a price increase for each type of token a few days preceding its respective burn raffle. Therefore I would try to get the necessary tokens for the raffles I want to enter now, not in those few days preceeding.

What if you cannot get the necessary tokens to enter the burn raffle? For example, you have one Rainbow frame but don't have the ETH to buy four more. I think one strategy you should consider would be to sell your single Rainbow frame leading up to the raffle. So maybe a day before or the day of, just as demand peaks. Sell when there are buyers with the incentive to buy. Buy when there are sellers with the incentive to sell.

Unfortunately, these burns raffles will not take place until after the Friends List mint. I would hang on to the extra ETH to buy back into Book Games when the dust clears in June.

The point I want to stress is that Book Games will have utility in the future. When that happens we can expect to see price increases at least in line with what we saw for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. But here's the kicker -- there will be less supply each time that happens. Those price spikes will likely be even more dramatic because there will be fewer tokens to go around. Keep that in mind as you make your decisions to hold or sell Book Games tokens.

Raffle Day

Well, friends, today is the day we've all been waiting for. Today the tokens we have been playing so hard to get will be entered into the drawing for Friends List spots for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Good luck to everyone who has been following. Hopefully, I've played a role in helping you play the game well.

Having said that, I expect there to be a dip in prices as players exit the game after 1PM Eastern time. There are currently about 7,500 Book Games Tokens listed for sale. That number has been slowly dropping for days. It is normally at least 1,000 higher than that.

An influx of even 500 tokens on the floor all at once could send prices crashing with players trying to be the first to exit. I see this as a major buying opportunity. See which tokens you need to make additional 5 framesets and use this time to fill gaps. I hope the floor doesn't crash, but I think it will. Best of luck today!

In this video I walk through the Raffle Probability Visualization in Tableau. LINK HERE

Book Games Raffle Probabilities

I added an interesting visualization tool to the Book Games Tableau site today. This viz allows you to see the probability curve for any sized wallet from 1 to 100 tokens.

Click on THIS LINK HERE to go to the BookGamesStats site.

Then select the Raffle Probabilities visualization.

On the right side, select the size of wallet you want to analyze.

On the left a distribution graph will be presented. This will show the probability of getting X number of Friends List Spots given the number of tokens in the wallet. So in this example, the wallet has 10 tokens.

It has a 4.59% probability of getting 0 FL spots.

16.58% probability of getting 1 FL spot.

26.91% probability of getting 2 FL spots.

And so on...

So you can quickly change the drop-down box to see various scenarios. It allows you to see, at a glance, the most likely scenario for various wallet sizes. I hope this helps you make a more informed decision about how many tokens you want to hold going into the Friends List raffle.

Raffle Scenarios Simulation

The two most frequent questions I have been getting lately are: how many wallets have X sets of matching frames and how many Friendslist spots will I get if I have X Book Games tokens.

So I simulated 1,000 raffles. I selected wallets at random that had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 20, 50 and 100 tokens. I then counted the number of Friendslist spots each of those wallets got.

1 Token

When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 1 spot 273 times and no spots 727. This one is really straight forward. The more times you run the simulation, the closer you'd get to 26%.

2 Tokens

When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 2 spots 78 times, 1 spot 343 times and no spots 579 times.

Hopefully, you get the idea. Below is the table with the results of the simulation. I have not gone through the trouble of eliminating burned wallets yet. I'm assuming they won't be included in the raffle but I haven't had time to program them into the simulator yet. Once the VeeCon ticket burn happens, I'll improve my simulation to count the burns and will give the results here. That will give you a better idea. Consider this a rough estimate at this point. 

Look for the fat part of the curve to see the scenario that's most likely for your wallet size. For example, the most frequent result for a wallet of 20 tokens is 5 spots. You might get more, you might get less but the most likely scenario is that you'll get 5. For a 100 token wallet, you would most likely get 26 spots -- which makes a lot of sense.

VeeFriends 2 Whitelist Odds Announced

BREAKING NEWS

The odds for the VeeFriends 2 Whitelist Raffle have been announced. Each token will have about a 26% chance.

Here is a chart to show what your odds are of getting at least one whitelist spot based upon the number of tokens you hold. You have over a 90% probability if you hold at least 8 tokens.