Friends List Raffle Postmortem

It's been an exciting few days in the VeeFriends world. The raffle took place yesterday. There were some winners and some losers. We knew some players would go 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 and they did. We knew some players with 10+ tokens would get no spots and they did.

Yesterday I predicted there would be a flash crash immediately after the snapshot and there was. This was predicted by most people in the space so I don't consider myself particularly smart with that call. It looks like the floor has settled in at about 0.26 or 0.27 for now. What does this mean? Is it the end of Book Games? Should you sell everything and walk away? Absolutely not.

Now we have a model of Book Games behavior for use in the future. There will be other times when Book Games will have utility. The focus for the next few weeks will be on the Patience/Lava sets and the matching Frame sets. So we can potentially use what we learned in those burn raffle scenarios. I'll be watching the first burn raffle extremely carefully. Based upon what we saw previously, I would expect a price increase for each type of token a few days preceding its respective burn raffle. Therefore I would try to get the necessary tokens for the raffles I want to enter now, not in those few days preceeding.

What if you cannot get the necessary tokens to enter the burn raffle? For example, you have one Rainbow frame but don't have the ETH to buy four more. I think one strategy you should consider would be to sell your single Rainbow frame leading up to the raffle. So maybe a day before or the day of, just as demand peaks. Sell when there are buyers with the incentive to buy. Buy when there are sellers with the incentive to sell.

Unfortunately, these burns raffles will not take place until after the Friends List mint. I would hang on to the extra ETH to buy back into Book Games when the dust clears in June.

The point I want to stress is that Book Games will have utility in the future. When that happens we can expect to see price increases at least in line with what we saw for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. But here's the kicker -- there will be less supply each time that happens. Those price spikes will likely be even more dramatic because there will be fewer tokens to go around. Keep that in mind as you make your decisions to hold or sell Book Games tokens.