Book Games Raffle Probabilities

I added an interesting visualization tool to the Book Games Tableau site today. This viz allows you to see the probability curve for any sized wallet from 1 to 100 tokens.

Click on THIS LINK HERE to go to the BookGamesStats site.

Then select the Raffle Probabilities visualization.

On the right side, select the size of wallet you want to analyze.

On the left a distribution graph will be presented. This will show the probability of getting X number of Friends List Spots given the number of tokens in the wallet. So in this example, the wallet has 10 tokens.

It has a 4.59% probability of getting 0 FL spots.

16.58% probability of getting 1 FL spot.

26.91% probability of getting 2 FL spots.

And so on...

So you can quickly change the drop-down box to see various scenarios. It allows you to see, at a glance, the most likely scenario for various wallet sizes. I hope this helps you make a more informed decision about how many tokens you want to hold going into the Friends List raffle.

VeeFriends 2 Minting Raffle

There has been a lot of discussion in the VeeFriends Discord about how to get on the whitelist for minting a VeeFriends 2 NFT. There will be a raffle among Book Games Token holders to determine who gets on the whitelist. The probabilities for that raffle have not yet been announced. In the table below I've laid out various scenarios and the associated probability of winning at least 1 whitelist spot based upon how many tokens you hold. I highlighted the number of tokens needed for a 90% chance of getting at least 1 whitelist spot for each of the probabilities. For example, if there is a 10% chance for each token during the raffle, you would need to hold 22 tokens to give yourself a 90% chance of getting at least 1 whitelist spot.

For the statisticians out there, I used the following formula to determine probability: 1 - ((1 - Probability) ^ Token Count)