The two most frequent questions I have been getting lately are: how many wallets have X sets of matching frames and how many Friendslist spots will I get if I have X Book Games tokens.
So I simulated 1,000 raffles. I selected wallets at random that had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 20, 50 and 100 tokens. I then counted the number of Friendslist spots each of those wallets got.
1 Token
When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 1 spot 273 times and no spots 727. This one is really straight forward. The more times you run the simulation, the closer you'd get to 26%.
2 Tokens
When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 2 spots 78 times, 1 spot 343 times and no spots 579 times.
Hopefully, you get the idea. Below is the table with the results of the simulation. I have not gone through the trouble of eliminating burned wallets yet. I'm assuming they won't be included in the raffle but I haven't had time to program them into the simulator yet. Once the VeeCon ticket burn happens, I'll improve my simulation to count the burns and will give the results here. That will give you a better idea. Consider this a rough estimate at this point.
Look for the fat part of the curve to see the scenario that's most likely for your wallet size. For example, the most frequent result for a wallet of 20 tokens is 5 spots. You might get more, you might get less but the most likely scenario is that you'll get 5. For a 100 token wallet, you would most likely get 26 spots -- which makes a lot of sense.
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