Pearl Revisited

Yesterday in the VeeFriends Discord, Gary confirmed that both Neon and Pearl would be eligible to burn for VeeFriends 2 new characters.

People had gotten the mistaken notion that they weren't because he didn't mention them in a list of 7 frames he posted on March 17th.

This makes me believe even more firmly that one each of those seven frames will be burnable for a new character, but that's a different subject. Let's stick to Pearl, which I feel is dramatically undervalued right now. There are currently only 100 wallets with a 5 frame matching set of Pearl.

The current floor for Pearl is 0.7525 and has risen about .06 since he made the comment. But I think there is still an opportunity to buy. The table below shows that only 114 Pearl frames are listed below 1.5ETH. That's only about 23 matching sets of 5.

If burn rules for Pearl require 5 matching frames and allow for 220 sets to be burned, I think Pearl is in for a dramatic increase in price.

Best Values

It's been a long time since I posted a list of best values. The focus has been on floors for frames so somehow it felt irrelevant for a while. I wanted to show the list today as a measure of how much things have changed since the last time I posted it.

Below is the list of best values. Almost none have a Rarity-Price-Ratio below 1. Almost everything has a high degree of rarity now. Just for fun, go back and check out the value list I posted on March 1st -- LINK HERE.

In this video I walk through the Raffle Probability Visualization in Tableau. LINK HERE

Possible Strategy

For those who burned Book Games Tokens for a Gary Originally Owned VeeCon ticket, I was thinking of possible strategies to maximize the gain. It's possible that you could flip it, then buy back into Book Games for more chances to mint VeeFriends 2 NFTs.

The following scenario has a bunch of assumptions -- some of which may or may not turn out to be true. This is more of a thought experiment than anything.

• Suppose you burned 5 Wood Book Games Tokens. Price at the time was about 2ETH.

• Price for GOO VC ticket is about 4ETH now.

• Floor price of BGT is now about 0.4ETH.

• You could sell now and buy about 10BGT.

• You might get 2 extra FL spots with the 10BGT.

• You could sell 2 BGT to fund the VF2 mint.

Now this is where it gets tricky. What will the VF2 floor be? If it's 1 ETH your VF2 are worth 2ETH. If it's 2 ETH they're worth 4ETH.

That's if you do this right now. But what if you wait for the art reveal and GOO VC ticket goes to 5ETH or 6ETH? I put together a few scenarios in the below table. The expected value in the three columns on the right doesn't include the Book Games tokens that you could still hold. There are several things that could go wrong here -- the BG floor could moon before you're able to flip the VC ticket. The VF2 floor might not be what we expect. Lots of FUD but I think it's a valid strategy to at least consider. What are your thoughts on this move?

Large Transfer of Tokens

Update: Confirmed by VeeFriends that this transfer of tokens was done as a security measure.

About 9 or 10 hours ago it looks like all of the unassigned tokens were transferred from one wallet to another -- over 13,000 tokens. I'm assuming this was done for administrative purposes. But for now, some of the unassigned tokens might show up as assigned in Tableau. I'm waiting on confirmation.

Previous wallet was: 0xc0d6bca1c87d44aaf2801b31228803b8b70b37c1

New wallet is: 0xefbf105ca4bd45c3bdff25a7a4e2fe0a7ff2b8a8

Once I get confirmation, I'll update the airdrop link on this blog and will update the data in Tableau to reflect the change.

Wallet Summary Video

Check out my first video here on Book Games Stats. In it, I walk you through how to use the Wallet Summary visualization in Tableau.

March 4th Spike Analysis

On March 4th there was a blog post that detailed the rules for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. This led to an immediate increase in Book Games token sales. The floor and average sale price both increased and have remained elevated since the announcement.

In case you're new to this blog, there's a mountain of Book Games data available on Tableau. Use THIS LINK HERE. You can view transactions per day and average sale price per day in the Transactions visualization.

Here I've pulled transactions and average sale price by day for February 20th through March 18th.

The average sale price (not the floor) leading up to the announcement was about 0.35. A few days after the announcement the average sale price was up to about 0.5. Both the floor and average sale price have remained elevated since then despite the transaction count returning to normal levels. The floor price has lowered slightly in the past week but not significantly.

I think it's possible that a similar scenario will unfold when VF2 new character burn requirements are announced in the next couple of weeks.

My advice heading into a possible shock is the same as usual -- DELIST YOUR TOKENS. When the burn requirements are finalized and announced there will be a scramble to get whatever is needed. If you have a desirable token listed near the floor you will be leaving ETH on the table.

Good luck!

Emerald Flips Pearl

Yesterday in the VeeFriends Discord, Gary gave out a clue. Many players interpreted this as meaning these were these are the only frames that will be eligible to burn for a new VeeFriends 2 character. 

This made the players who had built up sets of five frames that were not on this list upset. I personally don't believe this is an exhaustive list of what will be burnable but really only Gary knows that.

This had an immediate impact on the market for Book Games tokens. Notably missing from the list were Pearl and Neon -- two rare frames. Now the current floor for Pearl is about 0.64ETH while the floor for Emerald is about 0.73ETH.

I think this is an opportunity to buy Pearl which has about 25% less supply than Emerald. What do you think?

Book Games Raffle Probabilities

I added an interesting visualization tool to the Book Games Tableau site today. This viz allows you to see the probability curve for any sized wallet from 1 to 100 tokens.

Click on THIS LINK HERE to go to the BookGamesStats site.

Then select the Raffle Probabilities visualization.

On the right side, select the size of wallet you want to analyze.

On the left a distribution graph will be presented. This will show the probability of getting X number of Friends List Spots given the number of tokens in the wallet. So in this example, the wallet has 10 tokens.

It has a 4.59% probability of getting 0 FL spots.

16.58% probability of getting 1 FL spot.

26.91% probability of getting 2 FL spots.

And so on...

So you can quickly change the drop-down box to see various scenarios. It allows you to see, at a glance, the most likely scenario for various wallet sizes. I hope this helps you make a more informed decision about how many tokens you want to hold going into the Friends List raffle.

Tableau Full Dataset

I put together a new visualization in Tableau. You can access it with this LINK HERE.

It should allow you to sort/filter on the full set of Book Games data. Please give me any feedback and ways to improve. I think I might build additional sheets into this particular viz since it has the full dataset and will be easier to update going forward.

Burn Sale Update

As most of you know there's a burn sale underway for VeeCon tickets. You can burn five wood frames to get a ticket. As of a few minutes ago, only a little over 1,000 frames have burned. The requirements for the sale will change at 5:55PM Eastern today, 3/12/2022.

Wood is now rarer than Silver but not by much. Many anticipated that all of the tickets would go almost immediately, but that hasn't happened.

Tableau Wallet Summary

To further my goal of helping the Book Games Community not make bad mistakes, I've rolled out a new Tableau Data Visualization. It will show a consolidated view of your Book Games wallet.

First, navigate to the BookGamesStats Tableau page LINK HERE. 

Select the Wallet Summary visualization.

Next input your wallet address in the field on the right and press enter.

You should then be presented with a consolidated view of your wallet including token rarity, price you paid, the last price paid for that exact combination, the current floor for that exact combination and the price listed if it is currently for sale.

Please give me any feedback you have on ways to improve this visualization. This is a new visualization so consider it to be in a testing phase for the next week or so.

VeeCon Ticket Burn - March 10

There is probably going to be a major sale on VeeCon tickets today. Details haven't been announced but Gary has hinted that you'll be able to burn some wood frames for a ticket. He also just shared this in the VeeFriends Discord. So get ready...

EDIT -- The sale has been announced. You need to exchange 5 Wood Book Games Tokens for the VeeCon ticket beginning at 5:55PM Eastern today. If the tickets don't all sell out in 24 hours the requirements to burn will change.

https://blog.veefriends.com/2022/03/10/7-day-only-veecon-ticket-burn-sale/

Frame Supply and Demand

There is currently an enormous focus on gathering sets of 5 matching frames in the Book Games waters. I update the stats on how many wallets have done so HERE. The number of wallets holding matching sets has gone up significantly in the past week. I expect it to grow significantly more over the next month -- even after the Friends List raffle on April 5th. This is going to put significant pressure on the price of certain frames. This is especially true for Neon, Pearl, and Emerald. There just aren't enough Neon frames for sale right now to make more than 50 new matching sets. These floors have continued to rise even as the total Book Games floor has fallen a bit in the last few days.

This table shows the total number of tokens for sale by frame along with the current total supply of each frame.

Hi-Res Book Games images

The high resolution Book Games images have been taken down from TokenTrove. I would imagine they took too much bandwidth. If you'd like to get a hi-res copy for yourself you can still do it, but you need to know the right URL. Don't go crazy with this -- if you do they might shut it down. The format of the URL is below. the w_500 indicates the resolution. The higher you go, the better. Where it says bubble, put the spectacular you want. Where it says curiosity-see-it-through put the attribute you want. Where it says neon put the frame you want.

https://res.cloudinary.com/nenvy-llc/image/upload/f_auto,q_25,c_scale,w_500/f_auto,q_25,c_scale,w_500,u_veefriends:specials:book:bubble:curiosity-see-it-through.jpg/v1/veefriends/specials/book/frames/neon.png

You need to use the exact right name for each replacement otherwise you'll get an error.

The list of frames:

black

caviar

champagne

clear

emerald

fur

galaxy

gold

granite

marble

neon

pearl

rainbow

silver

wood

The list of spectaculars:

bubble

diamond

gold

hologram

lava

The list of attributes:

ambition-at-the-highest-level

conviction-helps-you-grow

curiosity-see-it-through

empathy-drink-it

gratitude-is-the-attitude

humility-is-delicious

kind-fucking-candor

kindness-over-everything

koala-2025

love-of-optimism

paper-hands-pony

patience-helps-you-get-fed-instead-of-slaughtered

self-awa

tenacity-helps-you-get-there

time-machine-tiny-ogre

your-ability-to-be-accountable-counts

Raffle Scenarios Simulation

The two most frequent questions I have been getting lately are: how many wallets have X sets of matching frames and how many Friendslist spots will I get if I have X Book Games tokens.

So I simulated 1,000 raffles. I selected wallets at random that had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 20, 50 and 100 tokens. I then counted the number of Friendslist spots each of those wallets got.

1 Token

When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 1 spot 273 times and no spots 727. This one is really straight forward. The more times you run the simulation, the closer you'd get to 26%.

2 Tokens

When I ran the simulation 1,000 times, this wallet got 2 spots 78 times, 1 spot 343 times and no spots 579 times.

Hopefully, you get the idea. Below is the table with the results of the simulation. I have not gone through the trouble of eliminating burned wallets yet. I'm assuming they won't be included in the raffle but I haven't had time to program them into the simulator yet. Once the VeeCon ticket burn happens, I'll improve my simulation to count the burns and will give the results here. That will give you a better idea. Consider this a rough estimate at this point. 

Look for the fat part of the curve to see the scenario that's most likely for your wallet size. For example, the most frequent result for a wallet of 20 tokens is 5 spots. You might get more, you might get less but the most likely scenario is that you'll get 5. For a 100 token wallet, you would most likely get 26 spots -- which makes a lot of sense.

PFP Change

 

Just a quick notice for those on VeeFriends Discord. I've changed my PFP from my Mfer to a question mark from the Curiosity Book Game Attribute. I've decided to go all-in on VeeFriends and temporarily pause my Mfer lifestyle. My plan is to either stick with this as my picture or switch into a VF2 PFP as soon as I get my grubby little hands on one.

The Mfer was originally owned by Gary Vaynerchuk and listed HERE at 3ETH in case you're interested...

VeeFriends 2 Alpha

VeeFriends blog just dropped a ton of info including pictures of the new VeeFriends Series 2 art. They look amazing. The bottom line is that VeeFriends Series 1 holders are well taken care of. They get a free + gas VF2 NFT in a special "pose". 

The breakdown of how the 55k VF2 tokens will be allocated is as follows:

10,255 for VeeFriends Series 1 Holders

32,000 for Friends List (unclaimed NFTs go to the General store for Public Mint).

10,000 for the General Public Mint (plus any unminted from Friends List Sale).

3,300 for 15 New Characters (requires burning BOOK GAMES tokens,).

***CLICK HERE TO READ THE BLOG POST***

Rapid Change

Book Games seems to be changing by the hour at this point. The current floor is right around 0.43ETH. Just one week ago, on February 28th, the floor was right around 0.23ETH.

The number of sales yesterday, 3/6/2022, was 2,657 with an average price of 0.45ETH. This is about 10x the volume we had been seeing for most of February. Today's average price is already above 0.48ETH. The game has definitely changed.

I'm trying to keep the data for wallets with X number of matching frames updated daily. You can see that HERE. The number of players with matching sets continues to rise.

At this point the transactions are happening much too fast to post a best values list. I will give out a hint that Champagne frames are currently trading at a discount with respect to the rest of the tokens. Rarity is currently not being valued. If you have extra ETH and are looking at a long term play, now would be a good time to make a move on that.

Ponies and Koalas

There were about 8,300 Book Games tokens for sale when I checked a few minutes ago. Already over 2,000 have sold today.

The floor in Book Games is unbelievably hot right now. It's well past 0.4ETH. Way beyond what I expected at this point. All the focus is on the overall floor and the floor for frames.

But there is one floor that hasn't moved and it's really being overlooked right now. If you have about 5ETH to spend and a long-term investment horizon of two or three years, get a Koala or Pony.

Giveaway Day

Gary spent nearly the entire day in the VeeFriends Discord yesterday answering questions. It would be impossible to cover everything he said there. The one thing I do want to share is that the previously postponed Book Games giveaway was rescheduled for today, March 6th, 2022 starting at 6PM Eastern.

There will be thousands of people in the Discord at that time so make sure you chat strategically. You don't want to be on a timeout during a critical time to post.

You'll also need to have a wallet set up on the Immutable/TokenTrove website. There's a blog post from VeeFriends on how to set up your wallet HERE AT THIS LINK.

In other news, the sales per day and average price per sale is rising rapidly. There were 1,678 sales on March 5th at an average price of 0.38ETH. Just three days ago the average sale price was under 0.30ETH.

Good luck with the giveaway and I hope to see you in the Discord tonight!

Count of Wallets with Frame Sets

In my quest to get all of the Book Games Data into Tableau, I added the Count of Wallets with Frame Sets.

You can find it by clicking HERE.

Yesterday was a crazy day in the Book Games world with 1,379 tokens sold and floors rising rapidly. I'll be digesting all of what happened and will try to bring you insights through the data. If you have any specific questions about the data, leave a comment.

VeeFriends Minting Process

Here's what we know based upon the VeeFriends Blog Post today:

1. VeeFriends 2 token supply will be 55,555.

2. A raffle will be held on April 5th, 2022 of all Book Games Tokens. 32,000 winning tokens will be selected. If your wallet holds one or more of those winning tokens, you will get the corresponding number of whitelist spots for early minting of VeeFriends 2 tokens.

3. If you don't use your whitelist spot during the pre-sale, it will be forfeited and go to the public minting process.

4. The price of a VeeFriends 2 token will be about $1,000USD.

What we don't know:

1. Of the 55,555 supply, how many will be new characters?

2. When will the fire-sale for VeeCon tickets take place and what will be the price?

3. Exactly which tokens are eligible for the VeeFriends 2 new character minting process?

Timeline for next couple of months. Order based upon Gary hints in VeeFriends Discord:

1. VeeCon ticket fire sale / burn

2. VeeFriends 2 whitelist raffle (April 5th)

3. VeeFriends 2 whitelist minting (12.5 days in duration)

4a. VeeFriends 2 public minting

4b. VeeFriends 2 new character burn (happens during public mint per Friends List Breakdown Live Now)

VeeFriends 2 Whitelist Odds Announced

BREAKING NEWS

The odds for the VeeFriends 2 Whitelist Raffle have been announced. Each token will have about a 26% chance.

Here is a chart to show what your odds are of getting at least one whitelist spot based upon the number of tokens you hold. You have over a 90% probability if you hold at least 8 tokens.

VeeFriends New Character Carnage

I was hard at work crunching numbers again this morning. I wanted to speculate on how many tokens could possibly be burned for VeeFriends 2 new characters. What if everyone who had a set of 5 matching frames was able to burn for a new character and they decided to do so? What if every wallet that had multiple sets of 5 was able to burn? For example, there's a wallet with 50 Rainbow frames -- what if they burned all of those for 10 new characters? For purposes of this exercise, I stopped counting at 10 new characters.

As you can see in the table below, it works out to a whopping 27,140 tokens burned! This is over 22% of the current token supply.

To be honest, I don't think it will be possible to burn this many tokens but to put things into perspective, there are only about 11,000 tokens currently available for sale. Even if 5,000 are actually burned it's going to significantly alter the overall supply of tokens.

Frame Sets

Players continue to gather matching frames. Here's a total of the number of wallets with at least # of frames. I wanted to start with 4 to show that many players are very close to getting 5 matching frames. I also wanted to show 10 because those players could potentially get 2 new VeeFriends 2 characters (although this hasn't been confirmed).

Gary confirmed that 5 matching frames will be required for a new character. But you'll need to move fast!

Tuesday Values

It's been a crazy few days in the Book Games world. We're eagerly anticipating a VeeFriends 2 minting rules announcement. We expect to hear more on Friday. I just pulled a list of best values. The sales have been happening quickly so I pulled in the top 100 Rarity Price Ratio tokens for sale and sorted on price. The best deals move fast so some of these may be sold by the time I post this. Gone are the days where you can get a less than 1 of 100 token just above the floor. You've got to pay more now. Take a look at the Curiosity/Gold/Caviar selling for 0.2954 (these are the Immutable X prices which is still cheaper than Token Trove). 

By the way, there were 466 sales on Tuesday. That's the highest number since February, 8th!

Book Game Sales

 

I was planning to post my best values today but the sales of bargains are happening too fast right now. To illustrate this, here is a table that shows the number of Book Games sales by day. There's been a noticeable increase since last Friday and I expect the volume to increase this week as we get closer to the announcement of VeeFriends 2 minting rules.

If there's a specific question you have about the data, leave a comment and I'll try to answer it.

We're also seeing an increase in the number of wallets with at least 5 matching frames. There's been an increase for every frame in the last two days.