Emerald Auctions

The VeeFriends 2 auctions for the new Emerald Spectaculars ended yesterday. While all of the results are not in yet, most are and I think the results will surprise some folks. Someone in Discord mentioned that these results serve as a de facto ranking of VeeFriends characters. This seems as good a theory as any so let's take a look at the results.

I've sorted all of the characters based upon hammer price. I've included the top 50 prices. All of this data is available in Tableau -- LINK HERE.

The first two are no surprise -- everyone love the Black Cat and Rare Robot. Three Horned Harpik is in the third spot at about half the price as the top two. Emapthy Elephant is usually considered a top 5 character but it was 7th in the auction. As we round out the top 15, where is Patient Pig? We have to go all the way down to 38th to find him. This, I think, is shocking. It was the first character Gary drew in the series and already has a song and video. Either the rankings are changing or someone picked up a terrific bargain at 7.35ETH.

Do you see any surprises on the list?

VeeFriends 2 Reveal

The VeeFriends 2 character/pose/scene/spectacular reveal will most likely take place in the next 12 hours. I have been working on getting data for VF2 into Tableau. I've also worked out a rarity score.

The rarity score I've come up with is the sum of Character Rarity Score, Scene Rarity Score, Pose Rarity Score and Spectacular Rarity Score. I think the characters are evenly distributed so that one shouldn't be a factor but I'm including it just in case.

An individual trait rarity score takes the total number of tokens in the collection: 55,000 and divides by the number of items with that trait. So the rarity score for Emerald Spectacular would be 55,000 divided by 235 = 234.04.

I'm including Rarity Score as a general guideline. It remains to be seen how important it will be. Also, keep in mind that Rarity Scores won't be finalized until all the tokens have been minted and that may not be until the end of the year.

Please consider these resources as works in progress and under construction. I will try to get them updated ASAP after the character reveal today. Let me know if you see any issues with the data.

GOOGLE SHEETS LINK HERE

TABLEAU LINK HERE

Good luck to everyone with today's reveal!

Discord Raffle Results and More

The VeeFriends 2 Discord Raffle was held overnight. There were 14,551 spots and 27,332 entries giving each participant about a coin flip chance of being selected.

Some were surprised that so many FL spots went unused but I was not. There are still about 6,000 unclaimed Book Games tokens and FL spots were allocated to that group in case the tokens were claimed during the minting period. That makes up approximately 1,700 spots. There are also likely many disengaged Book Games players not paying attention to what's going on. I'm sure there were liquidity issues as well. The good news is that those unclaimed FL spots were rolled over and given to those who entered the Discord member raffle.

The next exciting event up in the VeeFriends universe is the Emerald auction which will be held on OpenSea beginning today, April 25th. The current floor price for a VF2 spectacular is about 4.5ETH. Since this is a new spectacular, I expect these auction prices to be even higher than that. Hopefully, there will be some bargains for lesser-known characters.

We can expect a character reveal for VF2 on April 26th sometime after all tokens are minted. Then we can expect some level of pandemonium as people begin trading for the characters they want. I want to urge you to consider delisting your VF2 tokens prior to the reveal. Imagine if you left a Black Cat listed at 1.5ETH!

The new character burn raffles begin on April 27th. You can check out the recent probabilities for those HERE AT THIS LINK.

It will be an exciting couple of weeks here. I can't wait to see the character reveal. I have been working on VeeFriends Series 2 Tableau page HERE AT THIS LINK. I still consider this a work in progress so please give me any feedback you have about it. I plan to add a rarity score for VF2 as well. Probably a simple one that takes into account Character, Pose, and Spectacular. Please leave a comment with any opinions you have on that.

Good luck to everyone on the auctions, raffles and character reveal!

Public VeeFriends 2 Mint

Gary threw us a curveball this week by changing the public mint to a Discord raffle. You needed to be a VF Discord member by Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT in order to enter the raffle. You can read all about the raffle HERE AT THIS LINK. 

You need to have 0.335ETH in your wallet in order to enter the raffle. You need to enter the raffle no later than Midnight on Sunday night April 24th Eastern time (New York City).

Important Dates:

Thursday, April 21st at 6:10 PM EDT - Cutoff to be a Discord member in order to be eligible.

Monday, April 25 at 12:00 AM EDT - Cutoff to enter the raffle.

Monday, April 25 at 12:30 AM EDT - Raffle winners announced.

Monday, April 25th at 1:00 PM EDT - Raffle winners can mint 1 VF2.

Tuesday, April 26th at 1:00 PM EDT - Cutoff for Raffle winners to mint their VF2.

If you don't win a spot in the raffle, they will waitlist you. If there are unclaimed spots in the public mint, they will go to the waitlist.

How many will enter? There are over 300,000 members in VF Discord but I expect the number to be far lower than that. Probably less than 100,000.

How many Friendslist mints have already been claimed? As of about 10AM Eastern time on Saturday, the numbers were as follows:

VF1 Count: 5,695

FL Count: 23,925

That means about 8,000 Friendslist spots have not yet been claimed. I update these numbers in VF Discord for time to time and will be monitoring closely over the next day. All of the unused spots will roll over to the public mint. These will be added to the 10,000 reserved for the public mint.

Good luck to everyone!

Friends List Mint

It feels like forever since I wrote an update here while in reality it's only been a week. I took a bit of a break while the VF2 Minting process was also taking a break. It seems like everything is back up and running with that now. As of this morning, about 22k VF2 tokens have been minted and the floor has remained just a tad under 1ETH for the past couple of days. I think the floor remaining steady here is a bullish sign for the project. With the way the minting process started out, things could be much worse.

In other news, Gary has hinted heavily in the VeeFriends Discord and on Twitter that he'll use a raffle for the remaining 10k+ minting spots rather than let them go to the public (and most likely the bots). How that raffle will be held remains to be seen. The Book Games floor is still rather low -- under 0.2ETH so it's a possible opportunity. If there was a raffle for Book Games holders, the probability for any given token would probably be very low -- around 10%. I wouldn't buy Book Games just for that possible opportunity. It might not happen, and if it does that's a very low probability to bet on.

Meanwhile, the Burn Raffle probabilities continue to drop. You can check them all out HERE AT THIS LINK. Emerald is no longer a sure thing at about 95%. The Red Devil is just under a 50/50 chance. I'm sure these odds will only worsen as money flows back into Book Games from VF2 sales. Keep in mind that these probabilities are worst-case -- only if all eligible sets are entered in the raffle. I don't think that will happen. The first raffle on April 27th should give us good insight into the Burn Raffle participation rate.

Finally, I've been working hard to get a VeeFriends 2 dataset loaded into Tableau. I hope to have that all ready to go for the day of the metadata reveal next week.

Have fun out there with the VF2 mint, stay safe, and keep in touch.

VeeCon

Looks like I'll be able to make it to VeeCon after all -- probably on Friday afternoon. If you're there, be sure to say hello. Gary told me we already have selfies together so he won't take one with me. :-)

This picture is so old, he wasn't even doing his signature "five fingers" move yet.

Good luck with the VF2 Mint this week. Stay safe out there.

Friends List Mint

The big day is almost here -- those of us lucky enough to win Friends List spots in the raffle last week will be able to mint our VeeFriends 2 tokens starting tomorrow. I know some will rush to do it right away but remember that you have 12.5 days to mint so there is no hurry. I'm afraid many buyers will try to be first and gas could still be rather high.

In order to minimize gas, be sure to check with a Gas Tracker before minting. LINK HERE for the Rarible Analytics tracker.

I have no idea what the secondary price floor will be for VF2 during the pre-mint period but I see many guesses in the 1-3ETH range. Let me know what your guesses are.

Meanwhile, the Book Games floor continues to drop. At the time I'm posting this it's down to about 0.2ETH. I see this is a huge opportunity. The next time there is an event, we'll likely see prices soar once again. I'm particularly interested in Ponies and Koalas listed for under 4ETH right now. From what Gary has said, those should likely trade at about 1/2 the value of the VF1 floor implying a price of about 6 or 7ETH.

Tableau Updates

I've been working on a few Tableau Updates and wanted to make players aware of them. LINK TO THE WEBSITE HERE.

Updated Burn Raffle Entries

To see the current number of possible Burn Raffle Entries, go to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization in Tableau.

Then select the down arrow in the upper left. Then select the sheet you want. For example, Black Frame Sets. 

That will bring you to a visualization that shows how many possible entries can be made for Black Frame Sets currently. It also shows that as a percentage of the 214 tokens available.

Best Values

This is another tab within the Full Book Games Dataset. It shows a visualization of tokens available for sale at the time the data was pulled. It has # of tokens for that combination unburned on the horizontal axis and Rarity Price Ratio on the vertical axis. The idea here is that good values will be toward the bottom-left. I consider this to be an experimental visualization for now so feedback is appreciated. The data for this one will get stale quickly after I post it. This really drives home the need for more timely data on this Tableau site but that's really not on possible until/unless I get some proper funding. I promise to keep this site free so everyone has access to the data -- but there's the tradeoff with timeliness that comes with it, unfortunately.

Multiple Wallet Summary

There are several players with Book Games held in multiple wallets for one reason or another. So I've introduced a new Wallet Summary called Multiple Wallet Summary. You can enter up to 10 wallet addresses on the right to see a consolidated view of all your wallets together. Then you can sort accordingly.

I understand that it's not convenient to copy and paste your wallets into those fields so here's a tip for saving a bookmark.

Start with this URL:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bookgames/viz/WalletSummary/MultipleWalletSummary_1

Then add on as many wallets as you want:

?Enter%20Wallet%20Address=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%202=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%203=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%204=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%205=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%206=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%207=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%208=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%209=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%2010=0x...

Be careful to follow that format exactly with no extra spaces. The %20 in the parameter value acts as a space so that's necessary. You don't need to use all of them. So if you had three wallets you'd only use the first three parameters.

Once you have the URL set and tested, you can bookmark it for future time savings.

Friends List Raffle Postmortem

It's been an exciting few days in the VeeFriends world. The raffle took place yesterday. There were some winners and some losers. We knew some players would go 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 and they did. We knew some players with 10+ tokens would get no spots and they did.

Yesterday I predicted there would be a flash crash immediately after the snapshot and there was. This was predicted by most people in the space so I don't consider myself particularly smart with that call. It looks like the floor has settled in at about 0.26 or 0.27 for now. What does this mean? Is it the end of Book Games? Should you sell everything and walk away? Absolutely not.

Now we have a model of Book Games behavior for use in the future. There will be other times when Book Games will have utility. The focus for the next few weeks will be on the Patience/Lava sets and the matching Frame sets. So we can potentially use what we learned in those burn raffle scenarios. I'll be watching the first burn raffle extremely carefully. Based upon what we saw previously, I would expect a price increase for each type of token a few days preceding its respective burn raffle. Therefore I would try to get the necessary tokens for the raffles I want to enter now, not in those few days preceeding.

What if you cannot get the necessary tokens to enter the burn raffle? For example, you have one Rainbow frame but don't have the ETH to buy four more. I think one strategy you should consider would be to sell your single Rainbow frame leading up to the raffle. So maybe a day before or the day of, just as demand peaks. Sell when there are buyers with the incentive to buy. Buy when there are sellers with the incentive to sell.

Unfortunately, these burns raffles will not take place until after the Friends List mint. I would hang on to the extra ETH to buy back into Book Games when the dust clears in June.

The point I want to stress is that Book Games will have utility in the future. When that happens we can expect to see price increases at least in line with what we saw for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. But here's the kicker -- there will be less supply each time that happens. Those price spikes will likely be even more dramatic because there will be fewer tokens to go around. Keep that in mind as you make your decisions to hold or sell Book Games tokens.

Raffle Day

Well, friends, today is the day we've all been waiting for. Today the tokens we have been playing so hard to get will be entered into the drawing for Friends List spots for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Good luck to everyone who has been following. Hopefully, I've played a role in helping you play the game well.

Having said that, I expect there to be a dip in prices as players exit the game after 1PM Eastern time. There are currently about 7,500 Book Games Tokens listed for sale. That number has been slowly dropping for days. It is normally at least 1,000 higher than that.

An influx of even 500 tokens on the floor all at once could send prices crashing with players trying to be the first to exit. I see this as a major buying opportunity. See which tokens you need to make additional 5 framesets and use this time to fill gaps. I hope the floor doesn't crash, but I think it will. Best of luck today!

Burn Day 2 Analysis

We're less than 24 hours away from the Friends List raffle for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Is anyone excited? I am.

But that's only part of the Book Games chaos right now. Players are preparing for burn raffles for new VF2 characters that will take place after the mint. Here's my analysis on the Day 2 Burn Raffle for Notorious Ninja.

The Ninja will be a highly sought-after character just because it looks super bad-ass. The competition will be fierce and will require a set of 5 Black frames to enter the raffle. We're still a long way off from the raffle so I expect the competition to only get hotter as we get closer.

I've downloaded the Frame Sets data from Tableau (LINK HERE) to Excel and only left relevant data for this analysis.

 

There are currently 589 wallets with at least 5 Black frames. Many of those wallets have 10 or more frames allowing for more entries into the raffle. The total number of slots is about 815 (I stop counting after 50 frames so there might be a couple more).

There will be 214 winning entries in the raffle. Assuming all sets are entered into the raffle, you've got about a 26% chance of winning a spot. I think it's a fair assumption that not all sets will be entered but it's anybody's guess what those numbers will look like.

It will be interesting to see if players go after Black frames with so much competition. I included the wallets with 4 Black frames to show that 73 additional players could enter the raffle by purchasing only 1 additional Black frame. Black frames are selling just above the Book Games floor right now so many may choose to do so.

Pandemonium and the First Burn Day

Yesterday was an eventful day in the Book Games world. We learned about the burn requirements for new characters in the VeeFriends 2 series. You can read about them HERE AT THIS LINK.

I have already started updating Tableau data based upon some of the requirements. I plan to do at least a short write-up about each burn day. I'll start off with Day 1 which will require 5 Patience Lava tokens with any frame.

If you have 5 Patience Lava tokens in your wallet, you'll be able to enter a raffle on the VeeFriends website. 214 of those entries will be selected. If you have 10 of those tokens you can enter twice. I will assume 15 will allow you to enter 3 times but we'll need some clarification on this.

So how many wallets have at least 5 Patience Lava tokens? As of a few minutes ago the number was 135. I added a tab to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization HERE AT THIS LINK. It shows the wallets with 5 or more Patience Lava tokens.

If we assume every holder of 5 enters all of their tokens in the raffle (this means the player with 31 enters 6 times) then there can be a maximum of 199 entries right now. I'm sure this will change over the coming days but as of now it's a guaranteed win.

The floor for Patience Lava is about 0.7ETH right now so it will cost about 3.5ETH for the new Mindful Minokawa character. Are you planning to burn for it?

Final Stretch

Only 4 days remain until the Book Games wallet snapshot will be taken. In case you're not aware, at 1PM Eastern time on April 5th, a snapshot will be taken of all tokens and wallets in Book Games. A raffle will be held among those tokens with 32,000 being randomly selected for a VeeFriends 2 Pre-Public Mint spot.

As we get closer, I anticipate both transactions and the average transaction price to increase. We had 699 transactions on March 31st which is about double what we've being seeing over the last week.

I also anticipate the floor for rarer frames to rise. As you can see below there are only 15 Neon, 67 Pearl and 79 Emerald frames listed below 1 ETH. That barrier could easily be breached once burn requirements are finalized and announced.

What is your guess for the Book Games floor on April 5th at 1PM Eastern? I expect players to begin delisting tokens as we get closer to the snapshot. That along with increased demand could cause a squeeze in the next few days. I think we'll go above 0.5 ETH.