Friends List Mint

The big day is almost here -- those of us lucky enough to win Friends List spots in the raffle last week will be able to mint our VeeFriends 2 tokens starting tomorrow. I know some will rush to do it right away but remember that you have 12.5 days to mint so there is no hurry. I'm afraid many buyers will try to be first and gas could still be rather high.

In order to minimize gas, be sure to check with a Gas Tracker before minting. LINK HERE for the Rarible Analytics tracker.

I have no idea what the secondary price floor will be for VF2 during the pre-mint period but I see many guesses in the 1-3ETH range. Let me know what your guesses are.

Meanwhile, the Book Games floor continues to drop. At the time I'm posting this it's down to about 0.2ETH. I see this is a huge opportunity. The next time there is an event, we'll likely see prices soar once again. I'm particularly interested in Ponies and Koalas listed for under 4ETH right now. From what Gary has said, those should likely trade at about 1/2 the value of the VF1 floor implying a price of about 6 or 7ETH.

Tableau Updates

I've been working on a few Tableau Updates and wanted to make players aware of them. LINK TO THE WEBSITE HERE.

Updated Burn Raffle Entries

To see the current number of possible Burn Raffle Entries, go to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization in Tableau.

Then select the down arrow in the upper left. Then select the sheet you want. For example, Black Frame Sets. 

That will bring you to a visualization that shows how many possible entries can be made for Black Frame Sets currently. It also shows that as a percentage of the 214 tokens available.

Best Values

This is another tab within the Full Book Games Dataset. It shows a visualization of tokens available for sale at the time the data was pulled. It has # of tokens for that combination unburned on the horizontal axis and Rarity Price Ratio on the vertical axis. The idea here is that good values will be toward the bottom-left. I consider this to be an experimental visualization for now so feedback is appreciated. The data for this one will get stale quickly after I post it. This really drives home the need for more timely data on this Tableau site but that's really not on possible until/unless I get some proper funding. I promise to keep this site free so everyone has access to the data -- but there's the tradeoff with timeliness that comes with it, unfortunately.

Multiple Wallet Summary

There are several players with Book Games held in multiple wallets for one reason or another. So I've introduced a new Wallet Summary called Multiple Wallet Summary. You can enter up to 10 wallet addresses on the right to see a consolidated view of all your wallets together. Then you can sort accordingly.

I understand that it's not convenient to copy and paste your wallets into those fields so here's a tip for saving a bookmark.

Start with this URL:

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bookgames/viz/WalletSummary/MultipleWalletSummary_1

Then add on as many wallets as you want:

?Enter%20Wallet%20Address=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%202=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%203=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%204=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%205=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%206=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%207=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%208=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%209=0x...

&Enter%20Wallet%20Address%2010=0x...

Be careful to follow that format exactly with no extra spaces. The %20 in the parameter value acts as a space so that's necessary. You don't need to use all of them. So if you had three wallets you'd only use the first three parameters.

Once you have the URL set and tested, you can bookmark it for future time savings.

Friends List Raffle Postmortem

It's been an exciting few days in the VeeFriends world. The raffle took place yesterday. There were some winners and some losers. We knew some players would go 4 for 4 or 5 for 5 and they did. We knew some players with 10+ tokens would get no spots and they did.

Yesterday I predicted there would be a flash crash immediately after the snapshot and there was. This was predicted by most people in the space so I don't consider myself particularly smart with that call. It looks like the floor has settled in at about 0.26 or 0.27 for now. What does this mean? Is it the end of Book Games? Should you sell everything and walk away? Absolutely not.

Now we have a model of Book Games behavior for use in the future. There will be other times when Book Games will have utility. The focus for the next few weeks will be on the Patience/Lava sets and the matching Frame sets. So we can potentially use what we learned in those burn raffle scenarios. I'll be watching the first burn raffle extremely carefully. Based upon what we saw previously, I would expect a price increase for each type of token a few days preceding its respective burn raffle. Therefore I would try to get the necessary tokens for the raffles I want to enter now, not in those few days preceeding.

What if you cannot get the necessary tokens to enter the burn raffle? For example, you have one Rainbow frame but don't have the ETH to buy four more. I think one strategy you should consider would be to sell your single Rainbow frame leading up to the raffle. So maybe a day before or the day of, just as demand peaks. Sell when there are buyers with the incentive to buy. Buy when there are sellers with the incentive to sell.

Unfortunately, these burns raffles will not take place until after the Friends List mint. I would hang on to the extra ETH to buy back into Book Games when the dust clears in June.

The point I want to stress is that Book Games will have utility in the future. When that happens we can expect to see price increases at least in line with what we saw for the VeeFriends 2 Friends List raffle. But here's the kicker -- there will be less supply each time that happens. Those price spikes will likely be even more dramatic because there will be fewer tokens to go around. Keep that in mind as you make your decisions to hold or sell Book Games tokens.

Raffle Day

Well, friends, today is the day we've all been waiting for. Today the tokens we have been playing so hard to get will be entered into the drawing for Friends List spots for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Good luck to everyone who has been following. Hopefully, I've played a role in helping you play the game well.

Having said that, I expect there to be a dip in prices as players exit the game after 1PM Eastern time. There are currently about 7,500 Book Games Tokens listed for sale. That number has been slowly dropping for days. It is normally at least 1,000 higher than that.

An influx of even 500 tokens on the floor all at once could send prices crashing with players trying to be the first to exit. I see this as a major buying opportunity. See which tokens you need to make additional 5 framesets and use this time to fill gaps. I hope the floor doesn't crash, but I think it will. Best of luck today!

Burn Day 2 Analysis

We're less than 24 hours away from the Friends List raffle for the VeeFriends 2 mint. Is anyone excited? I am.

But that's only part of the Book Games chaos right now. Players are preparing for burn raffles for new VF2 characters that will take place after the mint. Here's my analysis on the Day 2 Burn Raffle for Notorious Ninja.

The Ninja will be a highly sought-after character just because it looks super bad-ass. The competition will be fierce and will require a set of 5 Black frames to enter the raffle. We're still a long way off from the raffle so I expect the competition to only get hotter as we get closer.

I've downloaded the Frame Sets data from Tableau (LINK HERE) to Excel and only left relevant data for this analysis.

 

There are currently 589 wallets with at least 5 Black frames. Many of those wallets have 10 or more frames allowing for more entries into the raffle. The total number of slots is about 815 (I stop counting after 50 frames so there might be a couple more).

There will be 214 winning entries in the raffle. Assuming all sets are entered into the raffle, you've got about a 26% chance of winning a spot. I think it's a fair assumption that not all sets will be entered but it's anybody's guess what those numbers will look like.

It will be interesting to see if players go after Black frames with so much competition. I included the wallets with 4 Black frames to show that 73 additional players could enter the raffle by purchasing only 1 additional Black frame. Black frames are selling just above the Book Games floor right now so many may choose to do so.

Pandemonium and the First Burn Day

Yesterday was an eventful day in the Book Games world. We learned about the burn requirements for new characters in the VeeFriends 2 series. You can read about them HERE AT THIS LINK.

I have already started updating Tableau data based upon some of the requirements. I plan to do at least a short write-up about each burn day. I'll start off with Day 1 which will require 5 Patience Lava tokens with any frame.

If you have 5 Patience Lava tokens in your wallet, you'll be able to enter a raffle on the VeeFriends website. 214 of those entries will be selected. If you have 10 of those tokens you can enter twice. I will assume 15 will allow you to enter 3 times but we'll need some clarification on this.

So how many wallets have at least 5 Patience Lava tokens? As of a few minutes ago the number was 135. I added a tab to the Full Book Games Dataset visualization HERE AT THIS LINK. It shows the wallets with 5 or more Patience Lava tokens.

If we assume every holder of 5 enters all of their tokens in the raffle (this means the player with 31 enters 6 times) then there can be a maximum of 199 entries right now. I'm sure this will change over the coming days but as of now it's a guaranteed win.

The floor for Patience Lava is about 0.7ETH right now so it will cost about 3.5ETH for the new Mindful Minokawa character. Are you planning to burn for it?

Final Stretch

Only 4 days remain until the Book Games wallet snapshot will be taken. In case you're not aware, at 1PM Eastern time on April 5th, a snapshot will be taken of all tokens and wallets in Book Games. A raffle will be held among those tokens with 32,000 being randomly selected for a VeeFriends 2 Pre-Public Mint spot.

As we get closer, I anticipate both transactions and the average transaction price to increase. We had 699 transactions on March 31st which is about double what we've being seeing over the last week.

I also anticipate the floor for rarer frames to rise. As you can see below there are only 15 Neon, 67 Pearl and 79 Emerald frames listed below 1 ETH. That barrier could easily be breached once burn requirements are finalized and announced.

What is your guess for the Book Games floor on April 5th at 1PM Eastern? I expect players to begin delisting tokens as we get closer to the snapshot. That along with increased demand could cause a squeeze in the next few days. I think we'll go above 0.5 ETH.